NFL Picks: 90% ATS Winning Trend Applies to Chiefs(-8.5) Week 5

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 9, 2015 2:27 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 2:27 PM UTC

The Chiefs are a 8.5 point favorite Week 5 with the 1-3 Bears in Town.  The Juice is a little high but lucky for us we've isolated a trend resulting in 90% ATS winners in this situation. 

Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs (-9) 1:00 ET
The Chicago Bears visit the Kansas City Chiefs for this 1:00 ET kick at Arrowhead Stadium. Each of these teams is 1-3 SU ATS. The Bears enter off an upset win, while the Chiefs enter off three consecutive losses. Yet the Chiefs are a 8.5 point favorite. What’s up with that? Let’s take a closer look inside the numbers to find out why this is my NFL Pick for week 5's Crusher. For the season to date, these my Crusher of the week picks are 3-1 ATS, with our lone loser on the Broncos last week in their 23-20 win, no cover, vs the Minnesota Vikings.  This week the NFL Odds are again in our favor. 

The Chicago Bears cracked the win column for the first time this year with a narrow 22-20 victory over the Oakland Raiders, who were mysteriously installed as a road favorite. It is not a good sign for Chicago today that teams are just 4-16 ATS the week after beating the Raiders. I am an advocate of the coaching change to HC Fox with the Chicago Bears. My belief is that he is going to return the Bears to a ground oriented team with a solid defense. Already, they are running the ball an average of 29 times a game for 124 YPG, and allowing just 309 YPG. But it is not showing up on the scoreboard, where they are being outscored by an average margin of 31-17. It certainly does not help their fortunes that they continue to rely on QB Cutler. This is one of his worst roles, in which he is 10-23 ATS as an NFL starter in a win vs lose set. Nor does it help that the Bears are a team with a negative mindset resulting in an 8-18 ATS record as underdog. They have played particularly poorly on the road, with their last 7 road losses being by an average of more than 23 PPG. The lone road game this year was a 26-0 loss at Seattle two weeks ago.

In the last three weeks, the Chiefs have played NFL playoff caliber teams Denver, Green Bay, and Cincinnati. These teams are a combined 12-0 SU, 11-1 ATS and are three of the five undefeated teams in the NFL. Certainly, there is no shame in those losses. Playing that caliber of competition has skewed their defensive numbers, as they are allowing 31 PPG, 397 YPG, and 6.4 YP play. Opening week against Houston, the Chiefs won 27-20 on the road, indicating they can handle inferior opposition. That has been a common theme for the Chiefs, who are now a perfect 9-0 ATS when favored by 8 or more points in non -division games. In addition, the Chiefs are in a positive situation, for 1-3 SU teams. It results in an over 90% ATS winning situation when a 1-3 SU home favorite who is off a trio of defeats faces a foe off a victory.

As a result of the above information, we can comfortably lay the big number with Kansas City on Sunday.

NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110) at Bookmaker

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