NFL Picks: 49ers vs. Seahawks spread pick
The NFL Odds are at -3 right now, with a total of 44. While my pick on the total will have to wait, let’s delve into the depths of this game, and see if we can come up with the most valuable spread pick.
For starters this spread is very tough. At -2 ½ and -3, the pricing of these odds are spot on. If you want to bet the Niners taking points, you’ll have to pay the price of -115 or higher at this point in the week. However I could easily see this spread going up further into the week. Right now the 49ers are taking just over 50% of the bets in this game, and if the public comes in on Friday and Saturday and wagers on the Hawks, the number could rise to +3 ½ on the NFL Odds Boards. Currently. The best price you can get without buying points is at Matchbook right now, who has Niners +3 (-119).
Not only is this a tough game to bet, but also it’s a tough one for the teams. Before blowing out the 49ers last season in Seattle on Week 16, the Seahawks had lost four games in a row to San Francisco. On top of the current trend going towards the Niners, the Hawks are dealing with a few injuries right now.
The Hawks were without both Cliff Avril and Brandon Browner for Week 1, as both had to sit out with hamstring injuries. Avril looks like he will make his return in Week 2 at home, but Browner’s status (which is arguably more important than Avril’s, a new player) will be determined later in the week after he attempts to run. Browner’s absence could mean the difference between a 49ers win or loss, so check back Thursday and Friday for the practice and injury reports, before you place this wager.
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The Sharp Pick
Right now this spread is a rare no play as it currently sits, but I think that may change within the coming days. Right now I do think the 49ers have some potential, but unless we can get the number to where we want it, this game may only call for a small money line bet. It also depends on the status of Browner.
One key factor to this game will be the Seattle running game, and on the other side, the play of Vernon Davis. Seattle’s defense played solidly on the road, and I expect them to do so again. However last week they gave up 5 receptions on 10 targets to Greg Olsen, the Panthers’ TE. Now with Davis in the game, the Hawks better be cautious in the middle of the field. Last year Davis was knocked out of the Niners; Week 16 loss, and I’m sure he will want to get some revenge here in 2013 Week 2.
The 49ers defense is tougher than Carolina’s, and if Marshawn Lynch can’t get going in this game, the Hawks are in double trouble. Lynch was held to under 3 yards per carry in Carolina last week, and even though they are at home, I think the Niners can stop them enough to keep the score low, and get the cover for our NFL Picks. Double check at the end of the week for any updates to this play.