NFL Picks: 49ers vs. Redskins Betting the Spread

Darin Zank

Thursday, November 21, 2013 6:45 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 21, 2013 6:45 PM UTC

Earlier this week we took a look at the lines on Monday night's San Francisco 49ers-Washington Redskins game. Today we offer up a pick on the pointspread for this week's Monday nighter.

The Niners are favored on the road, but this might bode well for the Redskins backers, considering home dogs on Monday Night Football are 1-2 SU and 3-0 ATS this season.

But there seems to be some trouble in Washington, at least according to the press and some fans. Might this be a bad time for the 'Skins to host a Monday night game?

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The Updated Line

Almost every book we surveyed opened the NFL odds for this game with San Francisco favored by four or five points, and by Thursday morning had bumped the Niners to -5.5 or -6.  

Niners-'Skins Game Set-Up

San Francisco has lost two games in a row but is very much alive in the NFC playoff race. At 6-4 the Niners are in a three-way tie for the second wild-card spot.

Washington, on the other hand, is about one loss away from elimination. The 'Skins are 3-7, and 8-8 probably won't make the playoffs this year.

San Francisco has lost four games this season; to Seattle, Indianapolis, Carolina and New Orleans; all four of those teams will probably make the playoffs.

Washington has lost seven games, two to Philly, and to Green Bay, Detroit, Dallas, Denver and Minnesota.

Both starting quarterbacks in this match-up, after leading their teams to the playoffs last year, have struggled this season. And while RG III gets the edge in the passing game, we'd give the bigger and more mobile Colin Kaepernick the edge in running the football.

These two teams last met two seasons ago, the Niners claiming a 19-11 victory on the road. But that game has basically zero impact on the handicapping for Monday's game.

Niners-'Skins, Statistically Speaking

A few numbers tell the story for San Francisco; The Niners rank just 29th in total offense this season, fifth in rushing at 141 yards per game but dead last in passing yardage, at 168 PG.

Defensively San Francisco is basically fine; they rank ninth overall and have allowed just 13 PPG over their last seven games.

Washington ranks sixth in total offense and first in rushing. But the Redskins have accumulated a lot of that yardage this year playing from behind.

Defensively Washington ranks 28th overall and 19th vs. the run.

Niners-'Skins Betting Trends

San Francisco is 7-3 ATS this season, 4-1 ATS on the road.

Washington is 3-7 ATS this year, 2-2 ATS at home.

Make sure to check out SBRs:

49ers vs. Redskins in Monday Night Football

Our Take on Monday Night's Game

San Francisco has lost two straight games, but they came by a total of four points to two pretty good teams. Heck, with a little luck they could have won both games.

Offensively the Niners are in a bit of a funk, but just a while back they scored 30 points five games in a row. Maybe a date with the Washington defense will help them break out.

The Redskins can move the ball, but often not at the right time. They've trailed big several times this year – against the Eagles, the Packers and Philly again – and made a bunch of yardage and scored some points in trying to rally, as opposing defenses go into “prevent” mode.

Finally, San Francisco has a clear advantage in the comparison of the defenses.

We don't usually like going along with the betting flow, but the number is still under a touchdown. So we'll give the points and go with the Niners for our free NFL pick on Monday night's game.

NFL Pick: Take Frisco at the -5.5 points offered at The Greek.

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