NFL Picks: 49ers vs Jaguars

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, October 23, 2013 8:27 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2013 8:27 PM UTC

Since wagering is legal in London, football fans in England get a rare opportunity to potentially watch and put money down on NFL odds involving a game with real blowout possibilities. The question is will the English like the huge underdog in making their NFL picks or play the heavy chalk?

Jacksonville Heading Towards Infamy

As the Jaguars travel to London, they provide absolutely no belief they are going to win a game in 2013. There is no need to go over all their failed statistics and feckless rankings in the NFL; it is given with how they have played.

What is noteworthy about Jacksonville is they could be the second team to go 0-16 in the regular season, something Detroit accomplished in 2008. However, the Jaguars thus far are proving to be even further inept, being outscored by 20.8 points a game, compared to the sorry Lions crew which was merely outscored by 15.7 points a contest.

Jacksonville was 2-14 last season, but at least surpassed sportsbooks numbers nearly half the time in covering seven times a year ago.

The Jags made front office changes with new ownership and head coach Mike Mularkey was only given one year. The hand-picked replacement was Gus Bradley and he appears completely in over his head.

Yes, the losing defeats morale, but the Jacksonville players seem to have already tuned Bradley out and he’s coached incredibly conservatively for a team going nowhere.

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San Francisco’s Motivation Is …..

Coach Jim Harbaugh will say all the right things, like the Jacksonville players might be having a hard time, but they are still being paid and any given Sunday blah, blah, blah.

The coaches can say what they want, but the players watch the tape, have friends who bet football and at least know what the NFL odds are if not care about them.

While not a fan of Harbaugh personally, I do respect his coaching techniques and my thought is he will sell his team on exploiting the Jaguars weaknesses and continue to build on the momentum the 49ers have manufactured in winning and covering four in a row.

NFL Betting Odds and Matchup Numbers

Most sportsbooks opened San Francisco at -14 or -14.5 and faster than Usian Bolt, the Niners were sitting at -17. There has been an initial slight buyback to 16.5 points, as the wagering community tries to figure out how to bet this contest. At least we know this; San Fran is 28-15 ATS under Harbaugh.

The original total of 40 has toggled back and forth a half a point to this juncture, and San Francisco is 18-8 OVER the last two years. When the total is between 35.5 and 42 points, Jacksonville is 2-10 ATS the last two seasons, losing by 16.1 points a game.

San Francisco wins covers by…

Doing what has allowed them to be perfect the last month.  Colin Kaepernick may someday turn into a passer like Aaron Rodgers, but for this team, he is more valuable running the offense and using his legs and arm. It might not be exciting, but it makes the Niners a better football team and life easier for NFL football handicappers to choose them.

Defensively, stuff the Jaguars anemic running game and make them beat them on third and long consistently.

Playing with Intensity and Focus

It is true that the Jaguars are professionals football players. But they need to start acting like they care and want to get better if they want to be taken seriously for our NFL picks. However, until they can prove themselves on the field, this squad will always pose a threat for anyone looking to back them with their NFL picks.

How they make this game closer is by paying attention to detail. This means committing fewer penalties, executing the game plan with the highest possible precision and giving extra effort in concentrating when they are in the red zone or when the 49ers are near scoring.


Final Outcome

While it makes more sense to take all the points from the handicapping perspective, Jacksonville gives no indication they really want to win and San Francisco can be execute as precisely as James Bond.

NFL Football Free Pick- San Francisco -16.5

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