While they will now almost certainly be without Jamaal Charles for this game, (he was probably set to receive, even if it was only four or five carries) preseason NFL odds have the Chiefs as -1.5 favorites, with a total of 40 points. Who should we back with our NFL picks in this matchup between the NFC powerhouse and the AFC upstart?
The 49ers didn’t put forth much of an effort in Week 1, and that is to be expected. Colin Kaepernick played all of one long series before being taken out of the game in the 1st quarter. He finished the game 4/4 with 38 yards passing and 6 yards rushing.
While the Niners didn’t push too hard in this game, neither did the Chiefs, which was somewhat unexpected for me. I thought the Chiefs would come out harder in search of a win considering Andy Reid’s new job and solid preseason record. The Chiefs lost both SU and ATS to the Saints in Week 1, and while the 1st string offense of the Chiefs looked good, scoring on both of their drives in the game, what came after did not look good.
The question is will Andy Reid and Jim Harbaugh play their starters for very long in this Week 2 game? I think we can count on at least another quarter from each team’s starters, and maybe even a drive in the second quarter as well. The Chiefs might have some struggles once their first string defense comes out, and that may play right into our hands.
Spread’s a wash
For me the spread is a no-go. The Niners could throw this game or blow out the Chiefs by twenty points, and on the other side, we really don’t have a firm idea of Reid’s plans. He needs to install the new offense, and I think that is priority number one. With that being said, I think we can expect him to play Alex Smith at least a majority of the 1st half, which means that the 49ers will probably match that. Smith also has some extra motivation to play the Niners, even if it is just the preseason.
Even with the spread being untouchable for me, I do like the total in this game. In Week 1 of the preseason, the ‘Over’ was 11-5, and I think we will see some continuation of that into the second week. This game seems like one of the better over bets for a few reasons other than it being the trend from a week ago.
The Sharp Pick
According to ASHN Sports, the ‘Over’ is 19-6 since 2010 when a team that played in the conference championship game a year ago is an underdog in a preseason game against a team that was not in their conference championship game a year ago.
To top it all off, even with his ‘Under’ cash from a week ago, Reid is 31-25-1 cashing the ‘Over’ in preseason games during his head coaching career. Combine all of that along with the ‘Over’ cashing 2/1 last week, I’ll double down on the ‘Over’ in this game for my sports picks.
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