NFL Picks: 3 ATS Sleepers to Increase Your Week 5 Profit

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, October 7, 2015 9:26 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2015 9:26 PM UTC

We sift through the NFL odds board in search of value sleepers in week 5 NFL betting. Check out which matchups we’re spotting and which way our NFL picks fall.

Bears vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs are riding a three-game losing streak ahead of week 5 NFL betting. They are just 1-3 SU and ATS with a 6.2-point losing margin on average, but they are coming off one of their worst offensive accounts in recent memory, a 36-21 loss to the Bengals in which Alex Smith and the O-line struggled something awful and had to settle for seven field goal attempts. Just that account alone is concerning, prompting us to doubt the merit of the Chiefs as the whopping 9-to-10.5-point home faves in this game.

This doesn’t mean that we don’t fancy the Chiefs to get back into the win column. They should win this game, but that many points seems overly generous for a team that is suffering in confidence right now. Then there’s the John Fox factor. The former Broncos coach knows the Chiefs quite well and although he leads a different team in the Bears onto the field, his intimate knowledge and winning experience over the Chiefs is going to be valuable. That’s worth considering the Bears have a shot to keep this a closer game than the NFL odds makers would have us believe.

NFL Picks: Bears +10.5 (-135) at 5Dimes

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Broncos vs. Raiders
Simply because this is the lowest NFL betting line in this AFC West rivalry since Peyton Manning has called the shots for the Broncos we’re pounding it enthusiastically. Since Manning’s arrival in 2012, the Broncos have won all six meetings (home and away), outscoring the Raiders 222-to-85 for a 137-point differential or an average of 22.83 winning margin. The Broncos have gone 5-1 ATS, including successfully covering double-digit spreads of 15.5, 12 and 10 (twice). The lone miss was a 37-21 win as the 16.5-point home chalk, which they missed by a measly half-point.

Sure, the Broncos may not seem to be offensive-minded this season, not up to their usual lofty standards, but this is a matchup they’ve dominated wholeheartedly. It’s a bit rich to suddenly downscale the NFL betting outlook. And for very little reason on the other side of the coin too. Raiders may be 2-2 SU and ATS on the season and they have a 2.8-point losing margin. Neither win can be called a signature win, really: Ravens are struggling with injuries and the Browns are simply struggling all the time. What’s more, they just lost to the hapless Bears coached by former Broncos head coach John Fox.

NFL Picks: Broncos -4.5 at BetOnline

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Bills vs. Titans
The Buffalo Bills are proving to be the vogue NFL pick this season, but sometimes too much of a good thing just isn’t good. Last week, the Bills tanked at home to the NY Giants all while installed as the considerable favourites at 5.5 or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice. Being a favourite was a new role for the Bills in week 4 NFL betting, more used to being the dangerous floaters or plucky underdogs in most matchups they are. As it were, they weren’t able to deliver in that role against a NY Giants side that got off to a rather slow start on the season. Now as the road chalk – again a new role and a space they haven’t occupied this season yet – one wonders whether it’s all a bit much for the Bills. Let’s not forget, the Titans are enjoying the role as the plucky underdogs this season – they are 2-1 ATS with a 4-point winning margin – and showed that when they took It to Andrew Luck and the Colts and very nearly pulled off the upset. Putting all these ideas together, we’re thinking this game could be closer than the NFL odds makers would have it, if not go the other way completely.

NFL Picks: Titans +3 (-115) at Bovada

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