The Broncos have surged up to +260 this week, only one week after being +300. There is zero value left with the Broncos in the future odds, as the sportsbooks have made sure that they will not be killed if/when the Broncos win the Super Bowl. There are probably 1000 better +260 bets at your book right now that have less risk than the Broncos to win the Super Bowl at +260.
Everything I have said about this team this season, the opposite has happened. They pretty much locked up the #1 seed in the NFC after their dominating performance over the Saints on Monday night, and after that, they are certainly good enough to be listed at the same price as the Broncos. That would be an epic Super Bowl, but nonetheless, the Super Bowl can’t be played at Century Link Field, and against a high-powered offense at a neutral site, I would take the Broncos in that matchup. Plus, the NFC is potentially a much tougher path than the Broncos have.
The Pats are probably my best AFC bet right now. Sure they are probably the NFL pick of the week after their win over Denver and then edging out the Texans on the road, but they are getting healthy and hot all at the right time. If New England can close out the year on a winning streak, they could steal the best record from the Broncos. Just like the Broncos, the Pats remaining four games are all against teams with records at, or below .500, and I like their price here. They are the only team in the AFC capable of taking out the Broncos in my opinion.
New Orleans might not be a bad bet, but once again the stacked NFC makes it tough at this point to bet any team in that conference to win the Super Bowl. Plus they now almost guaranteed themselves that they have to go through the Seahawks again in route to a Super Bowl. However for the price, there may be only one or two other NFC teams I like better at their respective prices. The Saints are balanced, they run the ball well, and they have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. It all comes down to getting hot at the right time, and maybe forgetting yesterday night’s loss.
The Panthers might still be a year away, so while I can’t yet recommend them as a future odds wager, I can say that they have what it takes. Cam Newton is still a young quarterback who has never been to the playoffs, so tempering expectations might be needed, but if he can get that defense healthy, this team has upside for days. Their defense will take them as far as they can go, but unfortunately I don’t think that will be much farther than the wildcard or divisional round at best.
The 49ers are almost dead to me as a future odds bet. They really can’t win their division now, as they are two games back with four to go, and I would take both the Saints and Seahawks over them at this point, even at the Hawks’ price. Unless this team can get really healthy on offense, and hot on defense, they aren’t very valuable. I might even take the Panthers over them at this point, and they are two very similar NFC teams in the NFL Odds.