The Broncos are the only AFC team that has not seen a change in their future odds from last week, despite playing the lowest ranked AFC opponent in the divisional round. At -140, the Broncos have long lost their value, and I would not touch them at -140. Much like the Chargers did to the Bengals, the Broncos are susceptible to the running game, and if Ryan Matthews’ ankle injury is ok by the time the game rolls around Sunday night, I would be frightened if I’m a Broncos fan. Their defense has been anything but solid this season, and with the Chargers very balanced offense coming in, it could be closer than some are projecting. They have already lost once to San Diego this season.
Despite not playing this past week, the Patriots moved from +350 down to +300 as they are set to welcome in the Colts. Indianapolis put on one of the craziest comebacks in recent NFL memory, but I have a feeling if Jamaal Charles would have not gotten knocked out on the first drive, the Colts would not have been able to mount such a fierce comeback. If Indy falls behind the Pats by that much, there is no way the Pats relinquish control. While I don’t think they have a ton of value at +300 to win the AFC, it’s not bad either, and while I can’t recommend it as one of our NFL picks, I won’t fault anyone for taking it.
Last week Indianapolis was +1400 to win the AFC, and now that they are only two wins away from doing so, they have dropped to +700 in the AFC future odds. Indy has the unique ability to score in an instant, but with all the injuries the Chiefs were hit with during the game, it doesn’t surprise me the Colts were running up and down the field in the second half. However I don’t think they have much value here at +700. New England’s defense should give Andrew Luck a beating in this game.
The Chargers also come in priced at +700 to win the AFC, and they have dropped a ton from their playoff-opening price of +1800 at this point last week. +700 is almost completely without value, and if you didn’t take my recommendation on a flier bet on the Chargers at +1800, you might be out of luck. I was very willing to take the Chargers at +1800 to win the AFC, but +700 is asking a lot. Considering they have already went into Denver and won this season, it’s not too hard to believe, however they would have to go to likely New England on the road as well. For a young team like San Diego, that’s asking a little more than their +700 odds portray. However it’s not out of the question, and like New England, I can’t fault you for taking a shot here on the Chargers.