NFL Pick Week 12 - Expert Final Thoughts: Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, November 27, 2016 8:37 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 27, 2016 8:37 PM UTC

A last place team with a +55 Point Differential heading into Week 12? Let’s look at the Trends and current realities heading into this prime time NFC game and offer up an NFL pick.



Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 11/28/16

Lincoln Financial Field (Desso GrassMaster) in Philadelphia (Cloudy, 47°) is the site of this big NFC Monday Night Football meeting between Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles (5-5 SU/ATS, 241 PS-186 PA) and Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 247 PS-276 PA) in game which will leave the loser probably thinking about next season. Most Sportsbooks have Philadelphia 3½-point favorites (BetDSI)—Bovada is at 4—with the Total from 47 (5Dimes) to 48 (Bovada) with most Offshores at 47½ early Sunday.


On the Moneyline, the Eagles are -180 (5Dimes) with the Packers +160 (BookMaker) and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Philadelphia up 3-point favorites in its Week 12 Advanced Line while Green Bay opened up as 3½-point favorites in its 2016 Games of the Year market, showing how much perceptions have changed with these two.


Monday Night Football, Sides, Totals and Series Trends

The MNF Trends in this matchup see the Packers L4 SU, L3 ATS) to be 11-9 ATS as a Road Underdog with the Eagles (#4 Scoring Defense, 18.6 ppg, 5.8 ypp) an impressive 14-5 ATS as Favorites and 5-1 ATS L6 Monday nights. Green Bay has played 4 straight Overs averaging 62.5 ppg, much because of porous Defense (#27 Scoring Defense, 27.6 ppg, 6.2 ypp). Carson Wentz and Philadelphia (100/1 to win Super Bowl, GTBets) are 4-0 SU/ATS at Home this season but 7-20-1 ATS L28 after Allowing 350+ Total Yards in its Previous Game and may be without Ryan Mathews (Knee). Green Bay (90/1 to win Super Bowl, 5Dimes) is 35-16 ATS L51 after Allowing 350+ Total Yards in its Previous Game but 0-4 ATS L4 in November and 0-6 ATS after Allowing 30+ Points in its Previous game (42, WASH).



The Over is 9-0 L9 Eagles Week 12 games, 11-3 L14 Philadelphia games vs. the NFC and 43-19-1 L63 Packers games after Allowing 150+ Yards Rushing the previous game but the Under is 4-0 L4 meetings in this series in Philly and 14-6 L20 Green Bay vs.NFC. The Favorite is 6-2 ATS L8 in this series with the Packers 4-1 ATS L5 meetings and the Under 6-1 L7.




Packers vs. Eagles Final Thoughts and Picks

The bottom line here in this Week 12 endcap is the Packers Defense is impossible to trust and with the Eagles chasing the Cowboys, Redskins and Giants in the NFC East heading in, the Home Site and the Fear should be enough to carry Darren Sproles and the hosts and their solid Defense to victory and close cover in what could actually be an entertaining game.


PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Eagles 29 Packers 23Free NFL Pick: Eagles -3½ Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

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