NFL Pick for Thanksgiving Finale Between Seahawks & 49ers

Jeff Grant

Thursday, November 27, 2014 2:32 PM GMT

Thursday, Nov. 27, 2014 2:32 PM GMT

San Francisco will win the ground battle against Seattle at Levi’s Stadium on Thanksgiving Night, which makes it a worthwhile NFL pick against one of its NFC West rivals.

Under the Brightest Lights
Seattle has won four of its last five games, including an impressive 19-3 victory over division-leading Arizona as 7.5-point home favorites last week, while out-gaining each of those opponents over that span.

The Seahawks are going to attract some action in this high-profile matchup, which is important to consider when looking over this week13 NFL betting odds, as they’ve gone 11-1 SU in their last 12 primetime affairs. Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 6-4 SU and 9-1 ATS as underdogs, with no clear edge in terms of the betting total (5-5 Over/Under).

Revenge-Minded
The home team has gone 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 installments of this rivalry, as San Francisco looks to avenge a 23-17 loss to Seattle as four-point road underdogs in last year’s NFC Championship Game.

The 49ers are playing some decent football in putting together their second three-game win streak of the 2014 campaign, which can’t be ignored when making your NFL Thanksgiving Day picks, but those victories came against three teams with losing records (Washington Redskins, New York Giants, New Orleans Saints).

It’s important to point out that the squad is a dominating 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS when the betting line is between +3 to -3 since the start of the 2012 season.

Creating Turnovers
One of the main reasons why the Seahawks won the Super Bowl last year was their ability to force opponents into making mistakes, but they’ve caused just 15 turnovers through 11 games—far different than their league-leading total of 26 in the same span a year ago.

Seattle’s stop unit is still playing at a very high level overall, as it ranks first in surrendering just 296.6 yards per game—just ahead of tonight’s opponent in that category (300.1).

Hit the Ground Running
The 49ers need to stick with the running game in such a physical matchup, as veteran Frank Gore has averaged 114.2 rushing yards when featured in this primetime event, which happens to be the highest number for any player with at least four games played in that situation.

On the other side of the ball, San Francisco has led the league in giving up just 85.7 yards per contest on the ground against division opponents since 2009—a major reason why the team is 14-6-1 SU versus such opponents under Jim Harbaugh.

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the 49ers as one of their top ATS NFL picks, as they’ve gone 8-2 all-time when playing on Thursday night.

Free NFL Pick:  San Francisco 49ers -1 at Bookmaker

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