NFL Pick: San Francisco 49ers -4 vs. New York Giants

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, November 14, 2014 7:31 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 14, 2014 7:31 PM GMT

San Francisco travels west to east in consecutive weeks, but will it matter against this NY defense? Lets preview this matchup to determine if there is any value on the Week 11 odds boards.

Each week in this missive I isolate an NFL contest in which one team will dominate the other overland. We know from past articles that I have penned for these pages, that in any given NFL game if one team outrushes the other by 30+ yards they are a 75% ATS winner. In addition, we know that teams who run the ball 30 times a game, if their opponent does not, are an over 80% ATS proposition, while teams who run the ball 22 or less times in a game, if their opponent doesn't, are a near 90% ATS play against. It will not surprise this bureau if all of those parameters are met today in our Steamroller Game of the Week.

The Giants enter this contest at 3-6 SU ans ATS; this includes 0-4 SU ATS of late. In the four game slide, New York has been outrushed 807-332. For the season, the Giants are allowing 27 PPG, 405 YPG, worst in the league, 6.6 DEF YP play, worst in the league, and 145/5.0 overland, again worst in the league. The G Men reached the nadir of their discontent when they traveled to Seattle last weekend. Leading the contest 17-14 vs the Seahawks, Seattle unleashed a ground assault that saw them outrush the New Yorkers 350-54 in an eventual 38-17 steamrolling victory. In the eb and flow of the NFL, one might normally expect a bounce from NYG this week. But their once proud dog log has eroded to 4-10 ATS of late, a microcosm of the fact, as they now stand 2-11 SU, 3-10 ATS vs winning teams.

At first glance, one may consider that the 49ers are due for a letdown following their come from behind 27-24 OT victory at New Orleans last week. After all, it took 3 critical New Orleans turnovers to gift the game to the 49ers and it was a contest in which San Franciso was outgained 423-330. Needing to travel west to east for consecutive early starts could be considered a potential problem for the 49ers; but the facts state otherwise, as San Fran is 6-0 SU ATS in this west to east scenario. At 5-4 SU, and still trailing Arizona by 3 full games in the division, it can hardly be considered a letdown spot for a 49ers team who is a traditional part of the post season party. We might rather consider it to be a buy sign, knowing that HC Harbaugh has led the 49ers to a record of 14-4 ATS on the non-division road. In addition, road teams following OT road wins have covered over 70% of the time of late. With the 49ers 13-2 ATS/SUDW vs a foe off a double digit loss, the momentum scenario is complete.

In final consideration, before you place your NFL pick; know that the line has yet to come in to play in NYG games, with every straight up outcome being decided by 10+ points, with the average margin of victory in New York games being 17.8 PPG. With momentum clearly pointing the 49ers way, and the Giants’ defense ripe to be steamrolled once again, it is no surprise to this bureau the 49ers record yet another double digit victory in a New York Giant game.

NFL Pick: San Francisco -4 at 5Dimes

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