NFL Pick: Home Dog Trend Applied to Eagles-Falcons Monday Night Football Matchup

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, September 15, 2015 5:48 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 15, 2015 5:48 PM UTC

The Philadelphia Eagles visit the Atlanta Falcons kicking off the MNF Season with what figures to be a highly entertaining, high-scoring affair.

Eagles vs. Falcons Monday Night Odds Report

NFL Picks on Totals for Eagles-Falcons MNF

ATS NFL Picks for Eagles-Falcons MNF

Monday Night Football Player Props

The Philadelphia Eagles visit the Atlanta Falcons for a 7:10 ET kick as televised by ESPN.  This game kicks-off the MNF Season with what figures to be a highly entertaining, high-scoring affair. I will take a bit of a contrary stance in this game, much like we did with our lone ranger selection on the St. Louis Rams.  That win combined with our Green Bay victory and our victory with Giants made it a perfect 3-0 ATS with your NFL Picks last Friday.

Philadelphia HC Kelly is apparently unfamiliar with the phrase, “if it aint broke don’t fix it.”  HC Kelly authored a 10-6 SU season with his Eagles last year.  That was certainly successful, despite being 1 of 5 teams who had a winning record but did not make it to the playoffs.  Apparently unsatisfied with skill position triplets, QB Foles, RB McCoy and WR Maclin, he traded them in for this year’s version of QB Bradford, RBs Murray and Matthews.  The offensive results in preseason were overwhelmingly positive with a trio of high-scoring wins and covers in August (before laying down last week).  The public, of course, loves this type of action and has pushed this number from an opening of (-1) to (-3).  It will come as no surprise to long-term NFL followers that we will side with the home dog value.

The changes made by Philly in the off-season paled in comparison to those made by Atlanta.  Gone is 7-year Atlanta HC Smith.  After a 14-4 SU, 11-7 ATS 2012, the Falcons declined to 10-22 SU the previous 2 seasons.  Credit a defensive decline to a combined total of 27 PPG and 389 YPG the previous 2 seasons.  Enter 1st year HC Quinn, the former Seattle DC, in hopes of shoring up the defense.  No quick fix needed by the Falcons’ go-go attack.  They should profit from the addition of OC Shanahan to help QB Ryan and his top pair of receivers, Jones and White to a high-scoring campaign.  With HC Smith, Ryan has covered his last 7 home openers.   

In a high-scoring Week 1, there were 9 OVERS & 5 UNDERS, implying the string of 37-15 OVER in primetime games, dating to last year, could well continue.  But before you pull that obvious trigger, please note the preponderance of 78% UNDERs in Week 1 games, featuring non-division road favorites.  Probably safer to side with the Falcons in a hard to bet contrary play, that will put the odds in your favor!

NFL Monday Night Picks: Atlanta Falcons +3 (-105) at 5Dimes

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