NFL Pick: Highlighting Best Early Value on Week 5 Betting Board

Kevin Stott

Monday, October 5, 2015 4:26 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 5, 2015 4:26 PM UTC

Let’s take a look at five games where there is some value & where the Early Money may be heading the way of these teams, complete with with NFL picks on all these Week 5 NFL games.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) and QB Blake Bortles have already beat Sunshine State foes, the Miami Dolphins, this season, so heading south to Tampa and Raymond James Stadium and beating the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) and Rookie QB Jameis Winston (4 Interceptions Sunday) is a distinct possibility, especially if the Florida State product and Rookie plays like he did against the Panthers in Sunday’s ugly loss. The last time these two teams played, the Bucs lost at Jacksonville 41-14 as 3-point favorites in 2011, while the last meeting here in Tampa (2007)—there actually is no Tampa Bay—the Buccaneers lost 24-23 as 4-point favorites. The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS the L5 in this inter-conference, intra-state affair. Heading into Week 5 play, Jacksonville has scored an AFC-low 62 points while the Buccaneers have now tallied 72. The Jaguars will be happy to playing the Buccaneers here, after facing the Patriots in Week 2 and the Colts on Sunday in Week 3 (Indianapolis won 16-13 in OT).
NFL Pick: Jaguars +3 (Pinnacle)


Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6½)
After playing, and losing dramatically, in San Diego in Week 4, the poor Cleveland Browns (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) head all the way back across the country to Baltimore to face the Ravens (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) at M&T Bank Stadium in this AFC North affair on Sunday which will be very important for both teams with the loser falling to 1-4 and probably out of the picture in the 2015/16 NFL Regular Season. Last season, the Ravens won and covered by ½ a point in Cleveland, 23-21 (-1½), while in this game last year in the Crab City, Baltimore won, 20-10, but didn’t cover as big 14-point chalks. Even though the Browns are an impressive 4-1 ATS the L5 here in Baltimore, the Ravens will be fired up after Thursday’s come-from-behind win, glad to be back Home after 3 of the first 4 games were on the Road, and ready to take out some frustrations on of the worst teams in the NFL, weary from travel. Of note: The Ravens have 7 Home games left and an Open Date (Week 10), along with this and another meeting (Week 12) with Cleveland.
NFL Pick: Ravens -6½ (Pinnacle)


Washington Redskins vs. Atlanta Falcons (-8)
The Atlanta Falcons (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) will play host to the Washington Redskins (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta this coming Sunday afternoon in this NFC inter-conference affair. On Sunday, the Falcons throttled the Houston Texans, 48-21 at Home here in Atlanta, while the Redskins rallied to top the Eagles, 23-20 in Landover opn a later Kirk Cousins to Pierre Garçon TD pass to improve to 2-2. The last time these two teams played, the Falcons won 27-26 at Home in Atlanta but failed to cover as 5-point favorites in 2013, while when they met three seasons ago in Landover in 2012, Atlanta won 24-17 and covered as 3-point favorites. The Falcons are 3-1 ATS the L4 overall vs. Washington and Atlanta is 4-1 ATS the L5 here at Home against the Redskins (0-1 ATS Road). Simply going to ride the Dirty Birds and Devonta Freeman (3 TDs on Sunday) until they don’t cover.
NFL Pick: Falcons -8 (Pinnacle)


Chicago Bears vs.Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
The Chicago Bears (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) head to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri to face the Kansas City Chiefs (1-3 SU, 1-3) in this Midwest inter-conference battle and pretty much now a must-win for both teams. Bears starting QB Jay Cutler (Hamstring) fought off his Injury and played on Sunday, leading Chicago to a late win over the upstart Oakland Raiders at Soldier Field thanks to a late Robbie Gould FG. Chicago would have had absolutely no chance with backup Jimmy Clausen in. And Kansas City was defeated at Cincinnati, 36-21, so QB Alex Smith (29-24-2 ATS) and the Chiefs need the win here and are coming off a little Broncos-Packers-Bengals (Weeks 2-4) patch of Hell on their schedule. These two teams don’t play that much in the Regular Season, but the last time they did, Kansas City won outright and covered, 10-3 getting 9 points at Soldier Field in 2011, while the last time these two danced here at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs rolled to an easy 31-3 win and easily covered ATS, back in 2003. The Bears are 3-1 ATS in the L4 at Kansas City, but those were different Bears teams and likely ones which played better Defense. Notes: These two teams have alternated Wins and Losses 8 straight meetings with the Chiefs winning the last one, and, Chiefs Overs are now 4-0 ATS. The Advanced Line of -12—put out by the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook midweek—seemed high, as does this 10 hanging both at the SuperBook and Offshore at Pinnacle on Sunday night and it seems Chicago could win this game if everything goes right. In a time when NFL Kickers are catching more grief than politicians, the Bears Gould is perfect on all his XP and FG attempts. Golden as always and good to know if you’re an NFL bettor. Carry on my wayward son.
NFL Pick: Bears +10 (Pinnacle)


Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Diego Chargers (-3½ )
Qualcomm Stadium in sunny San Diego is the site of this Monday Night Football game next week between the host San Diego Chargers (2-2 SU) and the wounded Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2 SU, 2-0-2 ATS) in what suddenly seems like a big game for both sitting at .500 after Thursday’s night’s embarrassing collapse by Pittsburgh to the Ravens. With Michael Vick starting for the injured Ben Roethlisberger (out 4-6 weeks), Pittsburgh is probably 6-8 points worse on Offense with Vick in there, but he should improve a little bit each start. Hopefully he won’t get Steelers All-Pro WR Antonio Brown hurt with some of these odd-angle, side-arm, shot-in-the-dark passes hu chucks. The last time these two teams played was in 2012 at Pittsburgh when the Chargers won outright, 34-24 as 7-point underdogs, while the last meeting here at Qualcomm Stadium was back in 2006 where the Bolts won 23-13 as 3½-point favorites. The Steelers are 7-3 ATS the L10 overall in this series and the Black and Gold is 4-1 ATS the L5 here in Southern California, but those games were all played a long time ago. Note: The L4 meetings in this series have all been at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. Would have loved the Steelers +6½ on the Advanced Line, but even at +3½ on the Road it’s intriguing. Pittsburgh can win, and the fear of being at 2-2 now in a division with a charging Ravens team and the undefeated Bengals should motivate them to at least play lockdown Defense against Philip Rivers (42-35-1 ATS at Home) and the Chargers.
NFL Pick: Steelers +3½ (Westgate)


NFL WEEK 5 EARLY WEEK VALUE PICKS: Jaguars (+3) over Buccaneers; Ravens (-6½) over Browns; Falcons (-8) over Redskins; Bears +10 over Chiefs; Steelers (+3½) over Chargers (Pinnacle); Steelers (+3½) over Chargers (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)


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