NFL Pick: Chargers to Override Chiefs in AFC West Battle

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, December 23, 2014 2:33 PM GMT

The Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers will clash on Sunday in a game with large NFL playoff implications. We have all the pertinent information you’ll need pertaining to the point-spread, including a 38-17 ATS NFL betting angle.

Huge AFC West Showdown at Arrowhead Stadium
The Kansas City Chiefs will host the San Diego Chargers on Sunday in a game which will have huge playoff ramifications for both teams. According to the NFL odds at Pinnacle, Kansas City is a 2.5 point favorite, and the posted total is 42.5. The Chiefs defeated the Chargers 23-20 in San Diego in the first meeting of the season between these AFC West division rivals. The Chargers have won each of their last two visits to Kansas City, and both of those victories came by exactly 3-points.

 

Fading the Home Favorite
If you’re looking to isolate one specific reason as to why the Chiefs went from an 11-5 playoff team a season ago, to one that’s 8-7 in 2014 and is on the brink of elimination, their turnover margin is a good place to start. Last season the Chiefs were 2nd in the NFL in that specific category at a +20, and are 22nd this season at -6. You also may be shocked to know, Kansas City has gone a dismal 0-11 ATS since 11/4/2007 as a home favorite of 3.5 or less, and they lost 10 of those 11-games straight up.

 

Value in the Road Dog
The record of San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers in the month of December has been well documented. However, more importantly for the NFL bettor is the Chargers success rate as a road underdog in recent times. San Diego has gone a terrific 13-2 ATS since 11/18/2012 as a road underdog, and they won 9 of those 15 contests outright. That also includes a perfect 5-0 ATS during that time following a win in their previous game, and they won 4 of the 5 outright.

 

Playoff Scenarios
Both teams have a lot riding on this game in terms of their playoff chances. However, it’s much simpler scenario for the Chargers. If San Diego defeats Kansas City they clinch an AFC wild card berth. On the other hand, The Chiefs would have to win on Sunday, and hope for help from other teams to get into the postseason parade.

 

NFL Betting System
The Chargers go into the final week of the regular season with a 9-5 record which equates to a .643 winning percentage. San Diego is coming off a stirring 38-35 come from behind win at San Francisco last Saturday. The Chiefs will enter Sunday’s game with a record of 8-7. The combination of these factors creates a very favorable betting system, and one that I’ll take advantage of when making my NFL picks for this week.

Any team (San Diego) that’s a favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less, coming off a road win by 3-points or less, and they have a winning percentage of .600 to .750, versus an opponent with a winning record, has seen that team go 38-17 ATS (69.1%) since 1983.

Free NFL Pick: San Diego +2.5 over Kansas City at BetOnline