NFL Pick: Bet 49'ers vs. Cardinals Total 'Over' 43.5 Now Before Odds Shift

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, September 24, 2015 12:27 PM GMT

NFC West rivals collide in the desert as the 49'ers visit the Cardinals. Here we focus on the total as we peruse the NFL odds and determine whether this game goes low or high.

Niners May Hyde the Run
Second year man and former Ohio State product Carlos Hyde had a monster Week 1 rushing for 168 yards and a pair of trips into the endzone as the Niners rolled over the Vikings 20-3. But his fortunes changed last week in the Steel City as he was limited to just 43 yards on the ground before he was sidelined with a sore quad muscle. Reports are he will be ready to go when San Francisco locks horns with the Cardinals but how integral he will be to their offense is questionable. The reason being is that Arizona ranks in the top 10 in rushing defense but protecting against the pass has proved vexing as the Cards rank 28th of 32 teams.

The one positive takeaway from San Francisco's drubbing last week against the Steelers was the pass and catch tandem of Colin Kaepernick and wideout Torrey Smith. Smith hauled in six receptions for 120 yards and a touchdown. His battery-mate Kaepernick was sacked five times but still managed 335 yards passing and two TD strikes. There is no doubt Carlos Hyde will see his share of carries but look for Kaepernick to take to the skies to try to penetrate that suspect Cardinals secondary.

 

Cardinals Soar
There's a resurgence in Arizona as Carson Palmer looked like he was 25 all over again and scorched the Bears for four touchdowns with three of those landing in the hands of Larry Fitzgerald (remember him?) en route to a dominating 48-23 road victory. As of this writing the Cardinals are the top ranked offensive team averaging 39.5 points per game and clicking on all cylinders as they have not only won their first two games but covered the number set by the NFL odds makers as well. Carson Palmer is an astounding 15-2 over his last 17 starts.

As we peruse SBR odds we find that virtually all the major online sportsbooks, with the exception of JustBet.com, are hanging a total of 44 on this NFC West clash. Let's take a look at the stats and see if this will give us an indication of where to go in our NFL picks for this total.

Over is 13-6-1 in Cardinals last 20 games as a home favorite.

Over is 16-4-1 in Cardinals last 21 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games following an ATS win.

 

NFL Pick
We saw last week how the 49'ers respond to a prolific passing game - they don't. And right now there is no one better at getting the ball into the endzone than Carson Palmer. Will the 35-year-old veteran be at the top of the heap over names like Brady, Rodgers and Luck when the regular season comes to a close? Probably not but right now the Redbirds are clicking and Larry Fitzgerald, in his 12th NFL season, looks like he is in the prime of his career as the same can be said of Palmer. I cannot see this San Francisco secondary stopping all the tools that are in the Cardinals' offensive toolbox.

But in order for a total to look promising both teams have to contribute and if you don't know it by now I am siding quite heavily on the over in this one. However, can Kaepernick and the Niners put up points of their own? I believe they can particularly when you have a mobile quarterback that can beat the outside linebackers of the opposition to the edge. Arizona relies on a physical front and pinches in their linebackers from both the weak and strong side to contain the run. Kaepernick can exploit this and eventually find his targets, especially Torrey Smith. This one looks like a solid over play.

Free NFL Pick: Play 'Over' 43 ½ at Bookmaker

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