Gobble, gobble, Week 12 is here and it’s time to stuff our faces with good food and some even better picks. Week 11 featured more COVID cases and more injuries, including rookie QB Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury. There was a big upset alert as Dalvin Cook and the Vikings were humbled out by the Cowboys. We get three games on Thursday this week, let’s see who we are stuffing in Week 12.
Continue to follow me as I dive into this season while taking part in the SBR Pick 6 Football contest. The best part is it’s free to play and you can sign up at any time.
The SBR Pick 6 contest has you pick 6 football picks each week. It’ll have you getting out of your comfort or safe zone and rooting for teams you wouldn’t ever dare to. It’s great for beginners and experts. I’ll point out the best plays each week and sportsbooks to look into. You can bet with me or against me.
It’s never too late! Join me and my first SBR contest, Go PRO, where I will test my own knowledge in capping over the entire NFL season. With the most unusual offseason we have ever seen in NFL history and no preseason, we’ll see what teams actually took quarantine as a time to prepare to reach the Super Bowl. Below we’re going to open up the best sportsbooks to see what the early odds are saying.
I hope you’ll join the fun! Happy NFL betting, ya’ll, and may the odds be in your favor.
And remember—play with your head and not your heart.
Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions
Thursday, November 26, 2020 – 12:30 PM ET at Ford Field
The first Turkey Day game kicks off around Noon when the Texans visit the Lions. Both teams enter Thursday on a short break, so it might not be enough time to fix their mistakes or deal with injuries.
Speaking of injuries, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford played through a thumb injury on his throwing hand in last Sunday’s loss to the Panthers. You could tell it was bothering him as he completed just 18 of 33 passes for 178 yards and didn’t throw one touchdown pass. That marked the first time he failed to throw a score through the air since Week 10 of last fall.
The injury spell didn’t stop there. The offense was down running back D’Andre Swift, along with wideouts Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola. Whether or not they will be available come Thursday is still up in the air, and as I said above, it’s a short week so it could be doubtful.
As for the Texans, quarterback Deshaun Watson has found a spark over the past two months. That spark continued to shine on Sunday. He finished the team’s win over the Patriots with 344 yards and two scores. He also managed 36 yards on the ground with a touchdown.
The Texans have all the weapons they need to win here and are actually better than the record says. The Lions probably won’t be able to heal in time for Thursday afternoon, so my NFL pick is on Houston.
Washington Football Team vs. Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, November 26, 2020 – 4:30 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
The second Gobble Day game kicks off in the afternoon as Washington squares off against the Cowboys for the second time this season. This rivalry played just a month ago when Washington torched Dallas 25-3. It was just the second without Dak Prescott for Dallas.
Prescott’s backup Andy Dalton returned on Sunday following a concussion in Week 7. He was a bit rusty but ended up throwing for 203 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-28 victory to break the Viking’s streak. It also marks the first time the Cowboys scored over 19 points since Prescott went down.
Also helping out on Dallas’ offense was wideout Amari Cooper who reeled in six balls for 81 yards. To compliment him, running back Zeke Elliot returned and posted a 100-yard rushing day, his first of this season so far.
This week could be tough for them as they face a Washington team who isn’t very good offensively but their quiet, yet stingy defense seems to fool everyone they play. Washington tops the league in pass defense and has 32 sacks on the year, tied at number three across the NFL. While the Cowboys won in the last matchup, Washington recorded six sacks. They had four in their win against the Bengals on Sunday.
Dallas’ secondary was able to keep up with a quick Vikings offense last week and switched up their offensive line, which seemed to have worked. Dallas has a bit more edge on offense here with Andy Dalton and Zeke Elliot back in the picture. They will be able to defend their home turf.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Thursday, November 26, 2020 – 8:20 PM ET at Heinz Field
The final game on Turkey Day is a primetime matchup between the Ravens and Steelers. Baltimore enters Thursday following a 30-24 overtime loss to the Titans. As for the Steelers, they continue their undefeated streak with a blowout win over the Jaguars.
These AFC North foes matched up just over a month ago when Pittsburgh defeated the Ravens 28-24. It was a back-and-forth contest as the Steelers sealed the last touchdown. Baltimore had an edge in terms of yards gained, first downs, and long possessions, but the four turnovers were costly.
This game isn’t as easy for Pittsburgh as the last few weeks have been, facing Jacksonville, Cincinnati, and Dallas.
This is going to be another battle, and while their offenses are capable of points with quarterbacks Big Ben and Lamar Jackson front and center, they both have tough defenses to roll through. Pittsburgh has been holding opponents to a league-low of 17.4 points per game, and Baltimore is not trailing too far behind them with 19.5 ppg.
With that in mind, rain showers are expected for Thursday with a 40% chance. The total sits fairly low at 45, but this will be a tough battle. I’m thinking it hits perfectly at 45 or just a point over. Check the weather. But for now, let's take the over at the best betting sites with such a low total.
Free NFL Pick: Over 45 (-110) at BetOnline
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 29, 2020 – 1:00 PM ET at Bills Stadium
The Chargers enter Sunday’s matchup vs. the Bills with a 6-point win over the Jets, but that’s nothing to brag about. As for the Bills, they are coming off a rest week, with their last game being a loss to the Cardinals on a Hail Mary score.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert has sat high and mighty taking over the starting position, but turnovers have cost them a lot. Last week, however, he went 37-for-49 for 366 yards, throwing 3 touchdown passes with zero interceptions. He had a lot of help from wideout Keenan Allen who reeled in 16 balls for 145 yards. The Chargers have lost their last four road games.
Buffalo saw a three-game win streak before visiting Phoenix. They led the game 23-9 at the half and rushed for just 73 yards in their 32-30 loss. They still rank high in the league, with a dangerous downfield attack that has tallied 41 passing plays of 20 or more yards, which is tied for most in the league. Stefon Diggs is the star of the show for those plays, bringing in 73 catches for 906 yards.
We have seen the Chargers compete, but this is an “early” game for them across the country. The Bills are fresh off a bye week and ready to rumble, they will shake up a struggling Chargers defense.
New Orleans Saints vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, November 29, 2020 – 4:05 PM ET at Empower Field
The Saints are en route to their 8th straight in a row win as they match up against the Broncos. This will be their second game without Drew Brees, but that shouldn’t be a huge factor as we saw last week.
With Taysom Hill at the forefront, the Saints went a third consecutive game to average victory scores of 29-8. Hill isn’t better than Brees, obviously, but the weapons worked well around him. He still had a solid performance completing 78.3 percent of his passes for 233 yards, with another 51 yards and two scores on the ground. The defense balanced the offense with eight sacks on Falcons’ Matt Ryan.
As for Denver, they came off a win over Miami, and Drew Lock bounced back after an injury, but they have struggled all season on both sides of the ball. They currently sit at number 29 across the league with an average scoring margin of 6 points a game. Home-field advantage doesn’t matter at Mile High after two blowout losses to the Chiefs and Bucs. The last weekend marked the last game of the season that fans are allowed at Denver’s stadium.
The Saints are hot and well-balanced. Also, this isn’t the first season they have been without Brees for a bit. They went without him for five games last season and won all of them when Teddy Bridgewater was backup. We’ll see that again this week, take them at top-rated sportsbooks.
Free NFL Pick: New Orleans Saints -5.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, November 30, 2020 – 8:20 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
The Seahawks enter Monday night’s Week 12 game with plenty of sleep after defeating the Arizona Cardinals on a Thursday night in Week 11.
MVP contender Russell Wilson was back in his prime, and their bottom-ranked defense, which has allowed an average of 30 points a game most of the season, held the Cardinals to just 21 points. They were even down both top cornerbacks. Wideout D.K. Metcalf and Wilson have gotten better week by week, and most teams are having a very hard time keeping up with the wide receiver.
As for the Eagles, they somehow rank first in their division even after a loss to the Browns on Sunday. There is a lot of pressure on Carson Wentz and head coach Doug Pederson this week as they continue to blow games. Wentz threw two interceptions in Sunday’s loss and might not have a home with them next season.
While the Seahawks have allowed the most passing yards per game, the Eagles haven’t shown they have enough strength to take advantage of that weak spot. Their weak spot lies in a defense that has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards. With the return of Seattle running back Chris Carson and sidekick Carlos Hyde, that should be easy for the Seahawks to roll through. Don’t expect the Eagles to magically upset the NFL odds this week.
Free NFL Pick: Seattle Seahawks -5 (-110) at BetOnline