NFL Odds: Will Eli Manning Throw Over 4420.5 Yds In Post-Coughlin Era?

Friday, July 22, 2016 7:25 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 22, 2016 7:25 PM UTC

Sportsbooks are starting to release NFL Odds for passing, rushing and receiving season-long props and here at SBR, we are breaking down all the major players this season. 

Eli Manning minus Tom Coughlin
The biggest move for the Giants (+3700 to Win Super Bowl LI at Heritage) this offseason was to move on from head coach Tom Coughlin, who headed the Giants for 12 seasons and brought the city two Super Bowls, both times beating the New England Patriots. However, his old school style of coaching and the apparent need for a fresh voice led the team and Coughlin to part ways this offseason.

The team elevated Ben McAdoo to the head coaching position. McAdoo is widely credited for turning around this offense since coming on board as the team’s offensive coordinator in 2014, and despite losing guys like Victor Cruz, Larry Donnell and tackle Will Beaty last season, the Giants were still one of the best offenses in the NFL.

One has to assume that the Giants are going to continue to be a big-time passing threat to almost every team they face this season, but will they change their game plan any with McAdoo in charge and Coughlin out? The Giants were eighth in total offense and seventh in passing offense last season.

However, they were 18th in rushing yards as a team last season, and their committee at running back was unsuccessful, leading to a lot of passing for Manning and company. They only collected 27 percent of their offense on the ground, which ranked them at the bottom of the league, and they rarely ran the ball on first down.


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Season Outlook
Manning threw for 4436 passing yards last season, which was the second-most of his career behind his 2011 season when he had nearly 5000 passing yards and 29 touchdowns. Manning did lob 35 touchdowns last season, which was a career-high and considering their running game is still a question mark, there is little doubt that Manning will once again be close to 4500 yards if he stays healthy.

The Giants’ offensive line is still is more of a pass blocking that a run blocking unit and their rushers are still the old faces of Rashad Jennings, (31 years old) Shane Vereen and Andre Williams. Bobby Rainey also joins the Giants as their likely fourth running back, but with Victor Cruz hopefully healthy for the year and Donnell coming back healthy, this passing attack is still better, while the running attack is the same unit that ranked in the bottom of the league in most rushing metrics last season.


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All in all, Manning looks like a solid play on the over. He threw the ball a career-high 618 times last season, and if he gets another 600 attempts this season, he should easily be back to the 4500-yard mark with all the weapons he has. Imagine if Vereen actually comes to play this season as the Giants third down back.

That gives Manning and McAdoo yet another threat on third down. It may be close, and it may rely on some of those fantastic deep passes to Odell Beckham Jr., but by the end of the season, I expect Manning to go over his yards total. He needs to average just over 276 passing yards per game.


Free NFL Pick: OVER 4420.5
Best Line Offered: at Bet365


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