NFL Odds Shift as Public Backs Home Team in Chargers vs. Bills

Steven Suarez

Wednesday, September 17, 2014 1:03 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 17, 2014 1:03 PM UTC

What a start it's been for the Bills, who remain at home for Week 3's battle with Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. Both teams are perfect against the spread so far – who will emerge as the best option with our ATS NFL picks ahead of Sunday?

The NFL betting odds are right around the same mark they were at previously in the week. Buffalo is favored by 2.5 points at a large majority of the sportsbooks we've run over.

A total play appears tricky on the surface, but for those interested, the O/U is listed at 45.5.

The Bills are looking good to open the season, beating the Bears in Chicago and then crushing the Dolphins at home in Week 2. They'll now look to go to 3-0 by topping Phillip Rivers and company this Sunday.

On the injury front, Keith Rivers is doubtful and Randell Johnson is out, but the likes of Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods are probable and therefore on track to play.

San Diego's Keenan Allen is questionable, while linebacker Melvin Ingram has already been ruled out. Allen's availability is definitely worth tracking leading up to kickoff.

With our picks, we're going to ride the momentum and bank on Buffalo putting forth another great effort in all phases. Take the Bills as short favorites.

NFL Pick: Bills -2.5

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The lines opened at a PK, but now Buffalo can be found as mostly a 2.5-point favorite at the top sportsbooks.

For the most part, a total of 44.5 can be found right now at 5Dimes, though 44 is available at a couple sites too.

Buffalo Bills in 2014-15 Regular Season: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, +11.0 margin of victory

San Diego Chargers in 2014-15 Regular Season: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, +4.0 margin of victory

There's little to complain about so far for Buffalo fans. The Bills went into Chicago on opening weekend and escaped with a win over the Bears, and then carried over that momentum into a dominant 28-10 Week 2 home win over Miami.

The Bills were short favorites coming in, and they had little trouble covering the spread for backers.

E.J. Manuel finished 16-of-26 for 202 yards and one touchdown, which was caught by rookie wideout Sammy Watkins, who finished with eight catches for 117 yards. C.J. Spiller, who had a kickoff return for a touchdown, and Fred Jackson had 24 combined carries for 93 yards.

Once again Buffalo's defense rose to the occasion, this time getting to Ryan Tannehill and company by forcing two turnovers and sacking the quarterback four times.

Things may not be so easy Week 3 against a San Diego team that just dropped 30 points on the daunting Seattle defense. The Chargers were clear underdogs at home, but they showed up in a big way en route to a 30-21 win.

Rivers was excellent, throwing for 284 yards and three touchdowns, all of which were caught by tight end Antonio Gates. The run game wasn't too great, as no back went over 32 yards, but Rivers was having a ton of success moving the ball through the air, completing 28-of-37 passes. Gates had 96 yards receiving in all, with Eddie Ryoal (69) and Keenan Allen (55) both logging at least 50 yards too.

Rolling into Week 3, both teams are confident, so it's going to be interesting to see how everything plays out. The public has moved the line in Buffalo's favor, and could continue to grow until it hits the three-point mark.

Either way, we'll continue to monitor the NFL odds before placing our finalized ATS NFL picks later on this week.

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