NFL Odds Overvaluing Home Team in Falcons vs. Bengals

Steven Suarez

Tuesday, September 9, 2014 3:02 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 9, 2014 3:02 PM UTC

The NFL betting odds are in the Cincinnati Bengal's favor as they host the Atlanta Falcons, but we don't feel too comfortable siding with them here.

* * U P D A T E * *

A small shift in the NFL odds has seen the line move from 5/5.5 to 5.5/6 and a majority of the top sportsbooks.

As of Saturday, the O/U was at 49 points, a reasonable number when you consider all of the offensive weapons that will be on the field Sunday. We've got some top wideouts in Julio Jones, A.J Green and Roddy White taking part in the festivities.

The only major injury to report is that to Cincinnati linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who's trying to recover from a concussion in time to play against the Falcons. Burfict is a big piece of the Bengals defense, so his absence would be a blow.

Nonetheless, we're changing our mind for this Week 2 game and taking Cincinnati to cover the number at home.

Why? Well, we weren't convinced with Atlanta's defense whatsoever Week 1, while the Bengals looked quite impressive in that regard in a tough road test in Baltimore. For your NFL picks Cincinnati looks to be the better all-around team at this moment in time, so we see them winning by at least six points.

NFL Picks: Bengals -5.5

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* * O R I G I N A L * *

It's been a good start to the new season for both the Falcons and Bengals. After each getting impressive wins in Week 1, one of these teams will move to 2-0 after Sunday's over and done with. There has already been some serious line movement early on in the week.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Bengals opened as four-point favorites, but that number is now at five and even at five-and-a-half at certain sportsbooks. That's quite a big shift, with potential Atlanta backers licking their chops at the extra value.

Sunday's game total is sitting relatively still at an even 48 points. With numerous playmakers like Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Roddy White and Giovani Bernard on the field, we can't argue with the current posted number.

Cincinnati Bengals in 2014-15 regular season: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, +7.0 margin of victory

Atlanta Falcons in 2014-15 regular season: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, +3.0 margin of victory

The Bengals faced a tough test in Week 1, having to contend with Baltimore on the road. That being said, Cincinnati rose to the occasion and ended up on top by a touchdown. That win should give Andy Dalton and company a big boost in confidence ahead of Week 2.

Dalton was sharp in the season opener, throwing for 301 yards and a touchdown, which was caught by Green on a 77-yard play. Green ended up with six catches for 131 yards. In the run game, Bernard couldn't get much going, ending up with 48 yards on 14 rushes.

It was Cincinnati's defense, however, that really made its presence felt. The unit may have given up quite a lot of yards, but the Bengals held firm when it mattered most and held a talented Baltimore team to 16 points in all.

The Falcons started off slow in their Week 1 encounter against New Orleans, but turned it up a gear in the second half to win 37-34 in what was one of the most exciting games of the weekend. Atlanta mustered up 573 total yards of offense, with Matt Ryan (448 passing yards and three touchdowns) accounting for most of the damage.

Ryan could have a much better year now that his top targets are healthy. Julio Jones had seven catches for 117 yards, Roddy White had five receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown, Devin Hester went for 99 yards, and Harry Douglas finished with six catches for 69 yards. It was a terrific day at the office for Atlanta's offense.

Of course, there are still things the Falcons need to work on, most notably their defensive execution, which was lacking against the Saints. They face another dangerous team in the Bengals in Week 2, so they'll have to address those issues in practice throughout the week.

Where's the value in your Week 2 NFL Picks? At early glance, there appears to be good value on Atlanta here, but we'll have a more definitive idea later this week which you can apply at a trusted sportbook like Sports Interaction.

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