NFL Odds Movement to Impact Late Week 5 NFL Picks

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, October 4, 2014 1:04 PM GMT

Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014 1:04 PM GMT

Swinger takes a look at how the NFL odds have shifted in some key matchups from their openers to late in the week. We hope this gives a clearer picture of what numbers you should be getting in your NFL picks.

What Did I Say?
As some of you may know I write a weekly NFL picks column for SBR and these are the three top selections I wrote about and discussed with SBR's Peter Loshak on Wednesday.

 

Carolina Panthers - 2 ½ over Chicago Bears for 3 units at Pinnacle.com
This game is currently being dealt as low as -1 ½ at offshores like 5Dimes.com all the way up to -3 at BetDSI.com in Saturday's NFL odds.  Looks like we got an average number on Wednesday morning and though we would love to get a -1 ½ and buy a full point to get Carolina - ½ (-130) in our NFL picks, we are content in knowing that we did get the Cats below the all-important field goal.

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Dallas Cowboys -5 ½ over Houston Texans for 4 units at WilliamHill.com
The Boyz are my top pick of the week but I would have liked to have scooped them up when the line opened early Monday morning.  At that time the Cowboys were being dealt as four-point home chalk in NFL odds but I managed to get them on Wednesday at - 5 ½ at Pinnacle.com. As the sun rises on Saturday morning I am perusing the NFL odds and find that my NFL Pick of the Week has climbed to -7 in shops like 5Dimes.com but is more commonly being offered at -6 ½ . Consider me happy with Dallas - 5 ½ in my NFL picks.

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Cincinnati Bengals -1 over New England Patriots for 3 units at Ladbrokes.com.
I'm still not really sure how a team that is considered by many to be currently the best team in the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals, was only a one-point road favorite over a team that looked so profoundly dazed and confused on Monday night like the New England Patriots when they were trounced by the Kansas City Chiefs 41-14. Add to that the Pats have only six days to prepare while the Bengals have had almost two full weeks after enjoying a bye in Week 4. This number has hardly strayed though I do see Bovada dealing Cincinnati at -2 in NFL odds yet most offshore shops have not strayed from offering the Bengals at -1 or even a pick'em. Could this be a trap game?

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Movers & Shakers

Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans - The Saints were initially saddled as 12-point home favorites in NFL odds but before you could grab the Bucs plus all those luscious points the offshores got hit by either the wise guys or the public (probably the wise guys in this case) and the NFL betting line has tumbled to New Orleans -10 as of this writing. 

Pittsburgh vs. Jacksonville - I have heard whispers that my buddy LT Profits just loves the Jags this week at home getting a touchdown against a Steelers squad that was stunned last week by the lowly Bucs. Perhaps that's exactly why LT is leaning heavy on Jacksonville because if the Bucs can beat Pittsburgh on the road then why can't Jax beat them at home? Or at least cover the number. 

It appears the wise guys are in lockstep with our resident sharp as the line has dropped from Pittsburgh - 7 to -6 at places like Pinnacle.com. I never remain on a critical number like three, four, six or seven so if you're betting this late and you like the Steelers to rebound then do yourself a favor and buy the hook to -5 ½ and pay the extra 10 percent. It could be the difference between a push and a winner.

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