NFL Odds: Great Betting Value on Jaguars vs. Colts Totals

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 4:18 PM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2014 4:18 PM GMT

Is anyone still betting on the Jaguars? Anyone? It might be difficult to bet on the Jags this week as double-digit dogs against Indianapolis, but we’ve got some juice for your Week 12 NFL picks.

Jason’s record after Week 10: 28-39 ATS, 11-16-1 Totals

Profit: minus-37.63 units

Blaine Gabbert, please come back. All is forgiven. After you took over as quarterback for the Jacksonville Jaguars, they became one of the most profitable teams in football – when they were getting at least 10 points from the NFL odds. It was a magical run: Jacksonville went 4-1 ATS as double-digit dogs in 2011 and 2012 when you started. But then you got hurt, and then you got traded to the San Francisco 49ers for a sixth-round pick and a bag of kicking tees.

While Gabbert has been holding a clipboard in sunny Santa Clara, the Jaguars have lost their double-digit mojo. They’re 0-2-1 ATS this year when getting 10 or more points, causing sharp bettors no shortage of headaches. And the Jags are getting another 13.5 points this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) when they host the Indianapolis Colts. Would you like a nice Shiraz to go with your chalk?

 

The 80-Percent Solution
It’s understandable if you’re unwilling to pull the trigger on the Colts – so to speak. They’re one of the most profitable teams in the league at 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS, but they’ve lost two of their last three games, including Sunday’s 42-20 de-pantsing at the hands of the New England Patriots (+3 away). Also, Indianapolis has yet to lay more than 7.5 points this season.


So we’re going to avoid the point spread altogether this week. The football odds have something better to offer us: the total. We’re looking at an over/under of 50.5 points as we go to press, up from 48.5 at the open, and we’re very happy to recommend the OVER in this matchup. It’s been a solid bet for the Colts this year at 8-2, including each of the last three games, despite ridiculous totals like Sunday’s 58-ball. And the Jaguars have the OVER at 6-4 this year. It’s copacetic.

 

Rank Offense
The Colts retain all the qualities that made us pick the OVER last week, when they were rated No. 8 on offense, No. 18 on defense and No. 5 in special teams at Football Outsiders. You saw all three aspects at work against New England; Andrew Luck threw for 303 yards and two touchdowns, the Colts allowed 501 total yards, including 244 on the ground, and Adam Vinatieri connected on both his field-goal attempts, one of those from 53 yards out. He turns 42 next month.


Unfortunately, when it comes down calling our NFL pick the Jaguars don’t bring the same imbalance to the table. They’re not particularly good at anything, and they’re especially awful on offense at No. 32 overall. The defense is a brick wall by comparison at No. 14 overall, and the special teams aren’t too special at No. 24. So how are all these OVER results happening?

 

Look Back at Anger
For one thing, the totals have been very low. None of Jacksonville’s games has seen an over/under of 50 points, and most of them have been at 45 or lower. Meanwhile, those efficiency rankings at Football Outsiders make the Jags D look pretty good. Pro Football Reference has Jacksonville’s defense at minus-4.5 through Week 11, which would rank No. 29 in the league.

As for those special teams, it’s not all about kicking field goals. The Jaguars have received substandard punting this year from Bryan Anger, who’s not quite made up for in quantity (58 punts) what he’s lacked in quality (38.9 net yards). Combine that with Jacksonville’s penchant for three-and-outs, and the opposition is getting plenty of added possessions with the ball in good field position. You can imagine what Andrew Luck and the Colts might do with those possessions on Sunday.

Free NFL Pick: Bet one unit on Over 50 (–108) at Heritage

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