NFL Odds: Games Too Risky To Bet Either Way In Week 7

Miami Dolphins players

Thursday, October 20, 2016 9:03 PM GMT

I thought it was too risky to bet on Ravens-Giants last week, and it wasn't decided until the final minute. Also didn't like favored Carolina and Green Bay and both lost outright. Here are three NFL spreads I deem too risky to wager in Week 7.

 

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams

This game is less about the teams in it than the location: London's Twickenham Stadium. It's the first-ever NFL game at that facility, which usually hosts rugby. A lot of changes had to be made there so this just seems like it could be a game with too many unknown intangibles. Obviously all the travel and adjusting to the time change and 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff is tough enough for the players. West Coast teams have a 2-3 record in the 16 International Series games that have been played since 2005. But the Rams might have an advantage in that they arrived in London on Monday as they flew right from Detroit after last Sunday's loss to the Lions. Makes sense to do that rather than go back to California and then have a monstrously long flight across the pond. The Giants aren't heading over until Thursday. You never know what the weather will be like in London, either. Many of the International Series games have been really sloppy. You should know that Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr. didn't practice Wednesday because of abdominal pain. He is expected to play but monitor that. OBJ was brilliant in Sunday's win over the Ravens with eight catches for 222 yards and two scores, including the 66-yard winner. Why do I think he will get a stupid and likely costly penalty in this game trying to win over European fans? Jeff Fisher brought his Rams team to London in 2012 and they were spanked 45-7 by the Patriots, the biggest blowout of any London game.

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Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

In a way, this is the most interesting game of the regular season. About a week before the season started, the Vikings were in a panic after losing starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a devastating knee injury without being touched in a practice. So Vikings GM Rick Spielman sent 2017 first- and fourth-round picks to the Eagles for their starting quarterback, Sam Bradford. At first, many thought Eagles GM Howie Roseman won that trade in a big way. But now? The Vikings are the NFL's lone unbeaten team thanks in large part to Bradford, who hasn't been picked off in his four starts. But things worked out fine for the Eagles as they get those picks and decided to throw No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz into the fire and he has largely been good. The Vikings are off their bye and their stellar defense would seem likely to confuse Wentz. Plus the Eagles are on a two-game losing streak. So, yes, everything points to a Vikings win here. But maybe the Philly players are totally fired up to beat Bradford? Perhaps the week off came at a bad time for Minnesota considering how well it was playing?

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

I can't really give you any statistical reasoning why this game would scare me as a Bills fan. They have won four games in a row behind a devastating ground game led by MVP candidate LeSean McCoy. The best coaching move of the season thus far was Buffalo's Rex Ryan firing offensive coordinator Greg Roman and replacing him with Anthony Lynn as the Bills have won four straight by double digits since. That said, it will be hot and humid in Miami on Sunday and that benefits the home team that's used to such weather. The Dolphins also surely have plenty of confidence after stunning Pittsburgh 30-15 last week. Miami's entire starting offensive line played together for the first time and the Fins gashed the Steelers for 222 yards rushing. In five games before that, the Dolphins averaged 72.4 yards per game. The team did get some bad news this week when Pro Bowl safety Reshad Jones was ruled out for the season because of a torn rotator cuff suffered against Pittsburgh. The Bills swept the series last year and they’ve won six of their last eight matchups against Miami, but an upset here wouldn't shock me.

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