NFL Odds: Games Too Risky To Bet Either Way In Week 10

Brock Osweiler Of Houston Texans

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, November 10, 2016 4:11 PM GMT

I was worried about three 3-point favorites last week in Baltimore, New Orleans and Carolina. Turns out I needn't have been for the Ravens and Saints, but the Panthers pushed in L.A. Here are three NFL spreads too risky in Week 10.

Houston Texans At Jacksonville Jaguars (pick'em)

I usually jump all over pick'em games for the obvious reason: you only need pick the winner and not worry about that pesky spread. If you give me 10 pick'em games a week, I'm going to make serious money. Alas, it's rare for an NFL game to actually close there. But this game perplexes me. The Jaguars are a total mess right now. There's zero chance that Coach Gus Bradley is back next year and he already has changed offensive coordinators. It didn't help much last week as the Jaguars managed only 14 points in Kansas City. But they did emphasize the run much more and showed some fight at the end against a good team. The Texans' run defense enters the second half ranked 28th in the NFL, allowing an average of 125.8 yards per game. Houston should be as healthy as it has been all season (not including J.J. Watt's season-ending injury of course) off its bye week. But have you seen the Texans and more specifically Brock Osweiler on the road this year? Houston is 0-3 away from home and Osweiler makes Ryan Fitzpatrick look like a Pro Bowler in those games as Osweiler is completing just 52.4 percent of his passes with one touchdown, two picks and a rating of 58.9. Do you know how you get automatic points on the SAT college entrance test simply by putting down your name? I think QBs get a rating higher than Osweiler's road number simply by taking a snap. I'm going to steer clear of this game, which pains me at pick'em on NFL odds.

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Green Bay Packers At Tennessee Titans (+3)

The Packers were NFC favorites at SBR's best sportsbooks to open the season but they don't look right whatsoever in losing three of four. They clearly miss injured running back Eddie Lacy, who is done for the season. Green Bay basically has abandoned the running game in recent weeks and substituted short passes for it with mixed results. Aaron Rodgers simply isn't playing like an elite quarterback these days. He's just the 11th-rated QB in the NFL, behind guys like Brian Hoyer and Sam Bradford. And Rodgers, one of the most accurate QBs ever, is hitting on only 63.5 percent of his throws, 18th in the league. I get the feeling Coach Mike McCarthy might not be back next year. The Titans are going to try and run the ball down the throats of the struggling and injury-ravaged Green Bay defense. Tennessee uses a lot of two tight-end sets in a power-geared ground game that ranks third in the NFL (144.2 ypg). The Packers do rank first in the NFL in stopping the run at 75.8 yards per game. But it hasn't played at that level lately. This starts a three-game road trip for the Packers that will define their season. It's the first time in four years the Pack will play three straight road games. If Marcus Mariota can avoid turning the ball over, there's no reason that the Titans can't win this game on NFL picks. I'm just not sure if he can avoid giveaways.

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Miami Dolphins At San Diego Chargers (-4)

Could the election affect the mindset of the Chargers' players on Sunday? I don't mean the Donald Trump stunning upset for the presidency -- don't get me started on that -- but that the city of San Diego soundly rejected a hotel tax increase that would have essentially gotten a new stadium built for the Chargers. Their current building, Qualcomm Stadium, is one of the worst in the NFL and has been around since 1967. So is this a lame-duck team now? The Chargers have the option of moving to Los Angeles as soon as next year. Don't think that doesn't weigh on the players' minds. Both these teams are playing much better of late. The Bolts have won three of four. Melvin Gordon has been a breakout star for them as he's third in the NFL in rushing and leads with 11 total touchdowns (nine rushing, two receiving). His 261 yards from scrimmage last week were the most for a Charger in 14 years. Miami has won three in a row on the back of running back Jay Ajayi, an afterthought when the season began. He has rushed for 529 yards (176.3 yards per game) and four touchdowns during the winning streak. San Diego has the edge in rush defense, ranking fifth (85.3 ypg) to Miami's 30th (136.1 ypg). But I really do wonder if the whole Los Angeles thing will be a factor here.

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