NFL Odds Favor Colts in AFC South Battle vs. Jaguars

Steven Suarez

Wednesday, September 17, 2014 2:27 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 17, 2014 2:27 PM UTC

As expected, it's been a rough start for the Jaguars this season, and it's highly unlikely it'll get any better against a Colts team that's desperate to get its first win. We've examined the opening NFL betting odds for this Week 3 AFC South encounter.

The Colts remain seven-point favorites at the best NFL betting sites, and that's a situation that should remain pretty static through kickoff. The total is at 45 points for now.

Jacksonville is still searching for its first win. This is a team that's dealing with a ton of small injuries, though not a lot of them are too serious. Toby Gerhart is probable, as are Cecil Short and Allen Hurns.

The Colts have listed T.Y. Hilton has probable, but Hakeem Nicks is questionable and defensive end Arthur Jones has already been ruled out.

In prepping to make our final spots picks, we've opted to take the heavy favorites.

There's only one way to go in our estimation and that's laying the chalk that comes with the Colts.

Indianapolis has played better than their record would indicate, and we expect Luck to lead his troops to their first win in relatively comfortable fashion, despite being on the road.

NFL Pick: Colts -7

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Wherever we look, we see Indianapolis as a heavy favorite on the NFL odds, with the spread ranging from 6.5 to 7 depending on the site.

The total opened at 46 points and has dropped slightly to 45.5 at 5Dimes. You have to think the Colts will be able to score practically at will this Sunday, but will the Jaguars do enough offensively to help this total go 'Over'?

Jacksonville Jaguars in 2014-15 Regular Season: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, -24.0 margin of victory

Indianapolis Colts in 2014-15 Regular Season: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, -5.0 margin of victory

The Jaguars were humiliated Week 2, losing 41-10 to the Redskins on the road. Jacksonville was a heavy underdog ahead of kickoff, but had no shot of a cover in the demoralizing loss.

Even with Robert Griffin III having to leave, the Jaguars couldn't stop the Washington offense. Kirk Cousins had his way, and Jacksonville was left embarrassed, with the team's only scoring play coming on a long Marcedes Lewis' touchdown. Lewis, however, picked up an injury in the loss and will miss considerable time.

QB Chad Henne finished 14-of-28 for 193 yards with one touchdown and one interception, but he was sacked 10 times. Henne got absolutely no help from the run game, as Toby Gerhart was stuffed for eight yards on only seven carries. It obviously didn't help that the Jaguars had to play from behind right from the get-go.                                                                                                              

As for the Colts, they let another one get away, this time on Monday Night Football. They had a pretty comfortable lead on the Eagles in the second half, but saw a 20-6 advantage turn into a 30-27 defeat, capped off by a game-winning field goal by Philadelphia.

Statistically, Andrew Luck had a solid game, throwing for three touchdowns, two to Ahmad Bradhsaw and one to Jack Doyle. However, he made some critical mistakes down the stretch, and that simply can't happen if Indianapolis is to be a serious playoff contender this season.

Ahead of Week 3, both teams have yet to get a win this season, but we're obviously higher on the Colts right now. They had their chances to win each of their first two games, so we're not counting them out whatsoever.

Even on the road and laying a considerable amount of points, we believe Indianapolis to be the right side with our NFL picks. The lines may continue to rise throughout the week, but we're still going to stick with the Colts. We'll finalize the play later this week.

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