NFL Odds - Early Line Moves That Matter

San Francisco 49ers players running into the field

Nikki Adams

Monday, October 3, 2016 9:48 PM GMT

Week 5 serves up 14 games to spot, but before you start shading those on your NFL picks find out how the market stacks up, which NFL line moves matter and where to shop the best early odds.

 Advanced Betting Lines for Westgate Las Vegas Super Book

Each and every week Westgate Las Vegas Super Book rolls out advanced lines for the upcoming week, an early buffet of NFL lines for bettors to sink their teeth into. The early bird gets the worm if you want.

Following the conclusion of each and every Sunday’s round of NFL betting, online sportsbooks go to press with the coming week’s action, adjusting for anything that may have happened in the previous round –from results to injuries and so on—they open their NFL lines accordingly.

 

Week 5 NFL Line Moves

Before us we have week 5’s opening NFL betting odds and we can tell you unequivocally that several big line moves (for various reason) have occurred, with the biggest being Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers in Thursday Night Football.

We compare and contrast Westgate’s advanced serving to the current serving and highlight those moves that matter the most and where the best current lines are trading for your NFL week 5 picks.

 

Thursday, October 6, 2016Cardinals vs. Niners

Advanced Line: Cardinals -6
Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5
A concussion to Carson Palmer during the latter stages of Sunday’s game with the Los Angeles Rams forced bookies to take this line off the board. Palmer must undergo an independent assessment on Monday, but with his status in doubt for Thursday Night Football – word is it’s highly unlikely he’ll be cleared to play this pivotal game – bookies had no choice but to return to the board with a significantly understated line. Even with Carson Palmer questionable the Cards remain favoured over the Niners on the road, albeit down from laying -6 to -2.5. And, intriguingly, early money coming down the wire is all over the Cards (current consensus polls reveal 66% of tickets taken are on Arizona). That says a lot about just how different perceptions are of these two teams even though they are both 1-3 SU going in to week 5. NFL bettors will find this game hanging on -2.5 (-120) at most sports betting outlets, but some such as Heritage are flirting with -3 (+105) at the time of writing.

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Sunday, October 9, 2016Patriots vs. Browns

Advanced Line: Patriots -10.5
Opening Line: Patriots -10
Tom Brady is back. Perfect timing. On the heels of the Patriots first loss this season and the worst in over 20 years at the Foxboro. Consider the Patriots are 3-1 SU going into week 5 NFL betting, putting aside Sunday’s loss to the Bills shouldn’t be a problem. It’s the 0-4 SU Browns on the road next after all.  In fact, the public is already pounding the Patriots (71% of tickets at early doors and 91% of the money, yikes). Shouldn’t more NFL bettors go hmmm……… where this double-digit line is concerned? Let’s face it, rust, lack of rhythm and form are real concerns for Tom Brady. Vacationing in Italy isn’t exactly the best way to prepare for a season. Then again, it’s Tom Brady. Depending on which side of the coin you’re looking to bet, the NFL line on this game is hopping from Patriots laying -10 to -11.5, the latter of which is available with bonus frontrunner 5Dimes

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Eagles vs. Lions

Advanced Line: Lions -1
Opening Line: Eagles -2.5
This NFL betting outlook for this game takes a complete and utter about-turn. Last week, the Lions were looked upon favourably according to Westgate. Without the Eagles even throwing a pigskin (bye week) Philadelphia opens as the significant road chalk, laying 2.5 points. Some sportsbooks have gone up to Eagles -3 (+100 and +105) to test the early waters, those include 5Dimes, Bet Cris and Just Bet. The change on the NFL odds board really doesn’t need much explanation, does it? The Lions (1-3 SU) are inconsistent and dealing with injuries while the Eagles are 3-0 SU, well rested and raring to go.

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Bears vs. Colts

Advanced Line: Colts -6
Opening Line: Colts -4.5
Indianapolis Colts come into week 5 NFL betting sporting a 1-3 SU mark. Crucially, they are returning from a London game and having opted to forgo the bye week that usually follows for a later bye in the season they’ll be dealing with some jetlag over and above the gruelling grind of the game. That decision might come back to bite Chuck Pagano. Things aren’t going to plan and their season is in real danger of spiralling out of control. In any event, the Colts reopen as the -4.5 home chalk in week 5, down from -6 where Westgate had them last week until the defeat to the Jaguars at Wembley on Sunday. To all intents and purposes, the Colts do seem overcooked still, but, seeing as they take on a 1-3 SU Bears side that is coming off their first win of the season, it might be just right. That said, it might be worth it to wait and see which way the NFL betting trends move this line.  

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Titans vs. Dolphins

Advanced Line: Dolphins -4
Opening Line: Dolphins -3.5
The Dolphins and Titans are hardly convincing anyone on the season, so it’s not surprising that the game opens around the standard home field-goal advantage. Curiously, early betting is leaning towards the road Titans with 58.5% of tickets taken. So far no major triggers to warrant significant line moves so NFL bettors are sure to find the current line trading at most sports betting outlets.

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Redskins vs. Ravens

Advanced Line: Ravens -4.5
Opening Line: Ravens -3.5
Redskins win their second straight game while the Ravens lose their first game of the season. These contrasting outcomes have played a small part in moving the NFL line down from -4.5 to -3.5 (-110). However, the NFL betting trends at early doors reveal a slight lean towards the Ravens at -3.5. Clearly, bettors feel the loss to the Raiders on Sunday was a bit unfortunate and they’re happy to lay the points with the Ravens. If this NFL betting trend continues without any triggers that would contradict it, it’s likely the NFL line will swell back up to -4.5 over the week. So jump on the Ravens - 3.5 while you still can.

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Texans vs. Vikings

Advanced Line: Vikings -4
Opening Line: Vikings -6
The Vikings have yet to play MNF but the NFL line already swells up to Vikings -6. That’s in spite of the Texans coming off a 27-20 win over the Titans in week 4 NFL betting. A lot about this NFL line has to do with J.J Watt’s season-ending injury. The absence of the formidable defensive end takes some of the shine off of the Texans defense.

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Jets vs. Steelers

Advanced Line: Steelers -7
Opening Line: Steelers -6.5
Before Sunday Night Football got underway sportsbooks reopened with the Steelers laying -6.5 but as the game got underway with the Steelers racing out to a 22-0 lead the NFL betting public weighed in and pounded the Steelers. As it is, the NFL line quickly jumped out to -7.5 with several sportsbooks including BetOnline, high limits leaders of the industry

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Falcons vs. Broncos

Advanced Line: Broncos -6.5
Opening Line: Broncos -4.5
This is a highly anticipated matchup on week 5’s NFL betting card. Defending champions Broncos are the only undefeated team in the NFL while Matt Ryan is the hottest hand in the league and leads a Falcons side that upset the NFL odds to defeat the Panthers last week. Adding intrigue to this matchup is the injury to Trevor Siemian. He’s questionable but not ruled out with a shoulder injury to his non-throwing arm. Should it come down to the quarterback position, Paxton Lynch might get his first start in the NFL. The rookie quarterback class of 2016 has set the bar high with Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott proving to be revelations. Nevertheless, the line is appropriately reduced to Broncos laying just -4.5 and the betting looking split down the middle at early doors. Falcons only just edge the Broncos as the consensus NFL pick with 51% of the tickets taken thus far.

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Bengals vs. Cowboys

Advanced Line: Cowboys -1
Opening Line: PK
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are coming off a win over San Francisco while Andy Dalton and the Bengals bounced back with a win over the Dolphins. The NFL betting line reopened on a PK and so far it seems to be holding with most sportsbooks.

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Bills vs. Rams

Advanced Line: Rams -2.5
Opening Line: Rams -2.5
The NFL betting line hasn’t changed from the advanced serving offered up by Westgate as early NFL bettors are pounding the Los Angeles Rams with 54.75% tickets at early doors and 68% of the money. It remains to be seen whether this NFL betting trend holds true for the remainder of the week. The Bills are now riding a two-game winning streak, both times coming up trumps as the underdogs.

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Chargers vs. Raiders

Advanced Line: Raiders -3
Opening Line: Raiders -4.5
The Oakland Raiders were the only top consensus NFL pick to come through for NFL bettors in Sunday’s early serving of NFL games. Predictably, with the public so in love with the Raiders bookies reopened with the Raiders laying -4.5. Curiously, the NFL betting trend reveals a slight lean towards the Chargers as the +4.5 road underdogs. Those that have watched the Chargers this season know their losses were close, riddled with fourth quarter collapses. Perhaps the idea is they’ll eventually get it together sooner rather than later. If the public continues to pound the Chargers it’s quite likely this line will whittle down so those looking to capitalise on the Raiders, who are flying by the seat of their pants and winning by narrow margins, might fancy waiting for a better line on this game to bet on week 5 NFL picks.

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 Giants vs. Packers

Advanced Line: Packers -6.5
Opening Line: Packers -6.5
Although MNF isn’t in the books yet, the Packers, coming off a bye, reopen as the -6.5 home chalk. It’s Lambeau. It’s a well-rested Aaron Rodgers and a Packers team that looks to continue their good form on the season. Barring anything spectacular from Eli Manning and the G-men in their MNF clash with the Vikings – such as upsetting the current NFC North leaders – this NFL betting line should remain just about the same on Tuesday morning. It’s worth noting, reduced juice leaders 5Dimes are testing the waters with Packers laying -7 (+105).

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 Monday, October 10, 2016Bucs vs. Panthers

Advanced Line: Panthers -7.5
Opening Line: N.A
No line is available for this game at this current point in time because of Cam Newton’s concussion incurred on Sunday with the Falcons. It’s uncertain yet whether last year’s MVP will be able to suit up for this game or not.