NFL Odds Analysis for Giants vs. Lions Week 1

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, August 31, 2014 5:30 PM UTC

Sunday, Aug. 31, 2014 5:30 PM UTC

Our resident NFL betting odds guru takes a look at the early point-spread and total movements, in the upcoming game between the Giants/Lions. Read this informative football handicapping article to pick up on some revealing public betting trends.


ESPN Monday Night Football Opening Game
The Lions will host the Giants at Ford Field in Detroit on Monday. This will be the first game of a nationally televised doubleheader on ESPN with the kickoff scheduled for 7:10 PM ET. The Giants are coming off a disappointing 2013 season that saw them go 7-9, and miss the playoffs just one year after winning the Super Bowl. The Lions were also an equally depressing 7-9 in 2013. Detroit endured a major meltdown in the last half of the season by losing 6 of their final 7-games, and in the process, relinquished what looked to be a once comfortable lead in the weak NFC Central. The tailspin ultimately cost former head coach Jim Schwartz his job. The one time Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Caldwell takes over in Detroit for the upcoming 2014 campaign.


The Opening Numbers
The Lions opened as a 4.0 point favorite in the NFL Odds, and have since moved to 4.5. The NFL betting trends in this game have seen a whopping 87% of the general public wagering siding with Detroit. During the last 3-seasons, when that majority of public wagering has gone on the Lions, they’ve been correct in 12 of those 21 instances (57.1%).

The total in this contest opened at 45.0, and has since made a substantial move to 47.0. NFL betting trends have seen 82% of public money wagered on the total going to the over, as opposed to just 18% to the under. When the majority of public wagering has made their NFL Picks taking the over in Detroit Lions games during the past 3-seasons, they’ve been right in just 10 of those 28-occasions (35.7%).

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Projecting the Line and Money Movement
I firmly believe we’ll see the books eventually move this line to 5.0, and even quite possibly 5.5. They would have minimum risk in doing so in my professional opinion, and in the process will almost assuredly prompt some action on the Giants. I’m also of the opinion that there are some bettors in the days leading up to this contest, who may even be naïve enough to believe that the Giants are pretty good, reacting to a knee jerk response as a result of a perfect 5-0 record during the preseason.

The public betting overwhelmingly going over the total in this game at this juncture doesn’t come as much of a shocker to me, nor am I surprised by the number escalating to 47.0. However, I would be mildly surprised if the total went any higher than 47.0, and firmly believe that we’ll see some late sharp money come in on the under. 

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