Heading into Week 13 of the NFL season, Jon Metler updates the NFL MVP futures market with his top picks and fade candidates.
It has been a strange year in the race to be the NFL MVP. Injuries and mediocre performances in nationally televised games have got the best of several players seeking the award. Odds have fluctuated coming in and out of seemingly every week and marquee matchup. Still, the NFL futures market remains heavily dominated by quarterbacks.
We look at some buy and sell options, as well as our top picks in the NFL MVP futures market.
NFL MVP Odds
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NFL MVP Picks: Buy
Brady is currently leading the NFL with 30 touchdown passes, and he is second in passing yards with 3,403. He is also leading several analytical categories at the position and is currently the top-graded QB on Pro Football Focus.
With every passing week, it is starting to feel more and more like his award. Several other players have had the opportunity to seize control of this market and they have whiffed every time. Brady is also on track to be one of the few frontrunners to play every single game for his team this season.
The award is supposed to be for your performance in the specific NFL campaign, but I feel as though the voters will subconsciously reward him for his two-year tenure in Tampa Bay.
NFL MVP Picks: Sell
Murray's ability to create highlight-reel plays week after week draws a lot of attention to his potential MVP campaign. Murray will be a favorite for MVP over the next several seasons, but he will not be taking home the award this year.
Unfortunately, injuries have got the best of him in 2021, and he has missed too much time to be considered for the award. His statistics are solid but not good enough where the missed games won’t factor into the voting.
The most electric part of his game is his mobility, and it is a red flag that he still has not been named the starter for the Cardinals coming out of a bye week. The Cardinals also signed QB Trace McSorley away from the Baltimore Ravens' practice squad, to be a backup option.
Murray may return, but it is unknown if he will be 100% healthy and able to pick up at his early-season form.
NFL MVP Picks: Long Shot
Burrow is currently the third-highest graded QB on Pro Football Focus. It is no secret that the NFL MVP is a QB-dominated award.
I believe there is a narrative around Burrow that could push him into the MVP mix. The Ravens are only one game in front of the Cincinnati Bengals for the AFC North title and the Bengals currently hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
If the Bengals were to win the division, their first since 2015, and capture a high seed in the AFC playoff picture, Burrow would immediately have a strong case for the MVP.
The credit for the team's turnaround would be given to the second-year quarterback, and that is a narrative that can garner some MVP votes.