As the clock winds down to the start of a new season, our expert capper takes time to review the updated NFL Future odds on who will be the next MVP. Read on and get his newest pick.
The NFL future odds for the MVP award haven’t been moving too much over the course of the offseason, but there are still some intriguing values on the board. While Adrian Peterson is the only non-quarterback to win the award in the last 10 years, there may still be some position player value. Here are some of my best plays on the board right now at Bet365, as well as some caveats you may want to be aware of.
Among the favorites at +600 are last year’s winner Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers. With Tom Brady at +1000, along with Newton and Rodgers, those three players have won five of the last nine MVPs. It’s hard to argue with that production, especially with the fact that there was Adrian Peterson’s (+1200) crazy six yards per carry and 2097 yard season. Oh, and that guy that just retired named Peyton has also won three of the last eight years.
Along with Russell Wilson at +900, these six players represent the big favorites for this award. However, almost all of them have their flaws outside of Rodgers, who we will get to in a moment. Newton is coming off a stellar season and it’s going to need to get even better if he wants to win back to back MVPs. Roethlisberger is once again missing half of his offensive skill players, Peterson is on the downside of his career and Brady is missing the first four games of the season.
That leaves us with Rodgers, who is coming into a year with Jordy Nelson (+10,000) coming back and Eddie Lacy (+6600) is no longer fat. He could do some crazy things on offense this season in a down NFC North outside of Minnesota. Rodgers is the only favorite at +600 worth betting.
The Middle Tier
Between +1200 and +2500 there are some intriguing names. Peterson is also +1200, but since he has already won the award once he joins the favorites for this article’s purposes. However, a couple of guys stick out, including Antonio Brown at +2000. If any receiver can win this award, it’s Brown, who has posted 375 catches for over 5000 yards over the No receiver has ever won the award, so it would take huge numbers from Brown to win the MVP. However, if he were to smash Calvin Johnson’s receiving yards record and go well into 2000 yards, it would be a start. Another 12-15 touchdowns with 140 receptions might do the trick.
Other that Brown, Carson Palmer is a solid value at +1200, but not good enough to make a play on in the middle tier. For now, Brown is the best play for the money outside of the top six favorites.
The Long Shots
When it comes to MVP Odds long shots, you have to be smart. The player has to be on a winning team that has a chance for a bye week to give the voters a little more juice. Starting at +3300 all the way to +50,000, there are some guys who have the upside to be able to win this award. However, they are few and far between.
Todd Gurley immediately sticks out at +3300 just squarely on talent and upside alone, but the Rams have no passing game and that is going to heavily work against Gurley this season. Plus, there is the Hard Knocks cures factor with him as well. Rob Gronkowski also sticks out at +3300, but if a receiver has never won the award, I can’t see Gronk putting up outrageous MVP-level numbers, but he is intriguing.
At +5000 though, Teddy Bridgewater is not a bad longshot. He has everything he needs to be in the conversation as a top-tier quarterback and if he has a huge Cam Newton-like season this year, he will be in the discussion. It might take beating out the Packers for the division, but this team has 11-12 win potential this year with how good their defense is. With very little to throw to though, it makes him a borderline no-play.
Finally, at +8000, David Johnson represents a lot of value for the Cardinals. Arizona is one of the best teams in the league and there is no way Bruce Arians can afford to sit Johnson on the bench like he did last season. Arizona’s running game is still very good and deep, but Johnson could also have a huge season with 2000+ all-purpose yards. Although it might take a season better than Peterson’s 2012, so he actually might need 2500 all-purpose yards.