Point: Bills Cover Against Patriots on MNF ... Stop Laughing!

Bills vs. Patriots

Doug Upstone

Thursday, October 25, 2018 11:32 AM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 25, 2018 11:32 AM UTC

You may think it's chuckle-worthy, but we're going all "Dumb and Dumber" and saying there's a chance the Buffalo Bills will cover the spread on Monday night. 

New England (5-2) at Buffalo (2-5)Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)Free NFL Pick: Bills ATSBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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This Monday night matchup lacks many things, among them charm. I swear I just heard an ESPN commercial and Buffalo was never mentioned. It was like "Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are playing this week on Monday Night Football!"

The NFL odds have the Bills as +14 point home underdogs and if that isn't bad enough, just think they would around a 20-point pooch this game was played at Gillette Stadium.

According to Aaron Schatz of FootballOutsiders.com, Buffalo should be receiving as many headlines as the Rams or Chiefs just on the other end of the spectrum.

Going back 33 years, the Bills offense according to their grading procedures is 53.2 percent LOWER, than the average NFL this season. The average number of yards gained per game in the NFL this season is 363, Buffalo is at 234 YPG. I could go on end up writing an article that would be worthy of the Washington Post in length, but I'll just tell you one last tidbit. The league average in scoring is 24.1 PPG, the bungling Bills are 11.6 PPG.

So what chance does Buffalo have to cover against New England, not much, but because of the point spread, there is always a chance, just like Jim Carrey said in "Dumb and Dumber."

How Buffalo Can Cover The Spread

I know Swinging Johnson has the Patriots and he is feeling - Way- too cocky after upending me last Monday. I had Atlanta, which was a winner for nearly three quarters of the game until the Giants scored with five seconds left and made the two-point conversion. That was a Bad Beat worthy of ESPN's Scott Van Pelt show.

The trade deadline is next Tuesday, so if Buffalo can annul their trade this week with Oakland involving A.J. McCarron, that would be a good starting point. In the unlikely event that would happen, QB Derek Anderson and the Bills coaches have to be more productive on first down. Buffalo averages 31 percent less on yards per play than the league average. If they were more aggressive and executed better on that down, they would not rank 31st in third down conversions.

Besides, the New England defense is nothing special. The Patriots are conceding 25.8 PPG and allow 4.6 yards a carry (24th) and are listed 25th in total defense.

Buffalo has only had one game in which they have not committed a turnover. In order for me to be correct on my NFL picks against Swinging Johnson, the worst case scenario has to be a +2 turnover margin, because the Bills cannot trade scores with Brady.

The Buffalo crowd will need to loud and boisterous and with an 8:15 Eastern start, they would have had plenty of time to enjoy liquid refreshments. There is no inkling of an outright upset. But here are two aspects to ponder, NFL favorites of a touchdown or more are just 10-13-1 ATD this season. And underdogs of 10.5 or more points after a loss by 14 or more points, against an opponent after scoring 30 points or more, are 24-6 ATS the last decade.

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