NFL Futures Odds: Falcons Total Season Wins

Atlanta Falcons Futures Odds

Nikki Adams

Saturday, July 9, 2016 8:51 PM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 9, 2016 8:51 PM UTC

After a .500 season, where do Dann Quinn and the Falcons go.? Up or down? We preview their NFL schedule and serve up choice NFL picks for each and every game with a view towards the 7.5 season win total trading across NFL betting markets.

Atlanta Falcons 2015 Look Back
The Atlanta Falcons were a frustrating side last term, half good and half bad. They burst out of the gates winning five on the trot before inexplicably going off course and losing seven of their ensuing eight games. They managed to right the ship in the final three weeks, winning two of their last three and ending the 2015 season with an 8-8 SU mark.

It wasn’t bad, but given the way they started it certainly could have been much better for Dan Quinn in his first years as the Falcons’ head coach. It left many wondering what might have been.

In any event, it’s a brand new season that looms on the horizon. As with all beginnings wiggle room for optimism and hope exists. Both of which Falcons faithful are going to indulge in with gusto if the strength of schedule based on last season’s results were any indication: tied at the top with the San Francisco 49ers with the toughest NFL schedule in 2016 the Falcons have their work cut out for them in no uncertain terms. Last season, the Falcons had the easiest schedule according to 2013 win-loss records yet they only managed an 8-8 SU season and, worryingly, by the skin of their teeth.

Predictably, the NFL betting outlook for the Falcons isn’t favourable. Odds makers roll out at 7.5 season win total with the UNDER decidedly favoured at -160 NFL odds all while the OVER is backed out to +130  NFL odds. Does the market have it right or are they prematurely writing off the Falcons in 2016?

We breakdown the NFL schedule game by game and serve up win-loss predictions for each with a view towards prediction which is the value bet in season win total betting for your NFL picks. Here’s a little nugget to consider – despite what appears to be a tough schedule the Falcons are the second best-bet to win the NFC South title after the Carolina Panthers, albeit at rather hefty +500 NFL odds and a good distance larger than the reigning champions priced at -220 NFL odds at top sportsbooks.


Week 1 vs. Tampa Bay, Sunday, September 11
The Atlanta Falcons welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the Georgia Dome on Sunday, September 11, marking the first week of NFL betting. Last year, the Falcons got off to a flying start, winning five in a row, including a nerve-wracking 26-24 win over the Philadelphia Eagles in which a late field goal clinched the win. That said, their ensuing losses were more or less shocking as they only won three of their next eleven games, a run of form that included a series loss to the Bucs.

This first game features a homecoming for former Falcons’ coach Mike Smith, who takes over from Lovie Smith as the new head coach in Tampa. There’s not a lot he doesn’t know about his former team and that could be an advantage. But it’s the first week and Smith and the Bucs might take some time to gel properly.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 1-0

Week 2 vs. Oakland (away), Sunday, September 18
The Raiders are an emerging team with a promising young quarterback Derek Carr leading the charge. The Raiders put in some eyebrow raising accounts in 2015 that have many NFL bettors talking them up for 2016. A trip west is a bit of a trek for the Falcons and will bring its challenges. Then again, Dann Quinn has seen the Raiders up close and personal during his time in the AFC with the Seattle Seahawks. He’s sure to game-plan intelligently to give his team a chance to steal the road win.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 2-0

Week 3 vs. New Orleans (away), Monday, September 26
Drew Brees and the Saints handed the Falcons the first loss of their 2015 season in week 6 at the Superdome. It was all downhill from there onwards for the most part. The Saints went on to sweep the series with the Falcons by winning in week 17, all while they were struggling something awful in 2015. The rivalry between these two sides is legendary – well in the division it is and to their respective fans. It’s likely to be a shootout between Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. Could go either way really but we’re tipping it in favour of the hosts on Monday Night Football.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 2-1

Week 4 vs. Carolina, Sunday, October 2
The Atlanta Falcons were the only team to beat the Carolina Panthers in the regular season, a 20-13 win at the Georgia Dome that sent seismic shockwaves through NFL betting circles. It also snapped an 18-game winning streak by the Panthers going back to 2014 when they won their last four games to finish the season. Whatever failures the Falcons endured in 2015 that was certainly one of their successes, if not THE success of the season when all was said and done.

Particularly as it came a few weeks after the Panthers embarrassed the Falcons 38-0 in Charlotte. Given the way the Panthers played last season, most NFL bettors are likely to back them to the win here surely. Well, we’re going to be a bit contrarian and go against the tide. Falcons win a second straight over the Panthers at the Georgia Dome.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 3-1

Week 5 vs. Denver (away), Sunday, October 9
A visit to Mile High means a visit to the home of the defending Super Bowl champions. That would normally be a worry. In this case, it’s no longer a Peyton Manning inspired team with the best defence in the league that went on to win the Super Bowl. Manning has slinked off into retirement, back up Brock Osweiler has moved to the greener pastures of Houston amongst several others.

Without a reliable quarterback – Mark Sanchez is a far cry from Peyton Manning – it’s hard to see the Broncos offense keep up with Matt Ryan and the Falcons O-line if they do light up. Sure, the Denver Broncos defence is still formidable and reckons to factor but the Falcons have to like their chances too.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 4-1

Week 6 vs. Seattle (away), Sunday, October 16
Back-to-back road trips against a couple of heavyweights in the game is a tough ask. Seattle Seahawks are still amongst the favourites in the NFC to win the Conference championship – a nod they’ve received ever since winning the 2013 Super Bowl over Denver Broncos. The Seahawks are coming off a week 5 bye and should be raring to go at CenturyLink Field. Dann Quinn’s homecoming reckons to be a tough one unless he can figure out a game plan that will work.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 4-2

Week 7 vs. San Diego, Sunday, October 23
Every year NFL experts talk up Philipp Rivers and the Chargers. Why? Who knows? Well, sure, he’s a talented quarterback that’s the main reason. But he’s skipper of a not-so-talented team. Last year, they finished on an abysmal 4-12 note. We reckon the Chargers’ existential crisis will continue in 2016. So much so the fans will be wishing they had left to Los Angeles after all.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 5-2

Week 8 vs. Green Bay, Sunday, October 30
Green Bay Packers aren’t the same team on the road as they are at home. In theory, that gives the Falcons a shot to win at the Georgia Dome. Oh, wait. A dome? Is that like a roof thingy? Sort of like Ford Field, say? Hmm…two words. Hail Mary. Yeah, Rodgers is scary under a roof. If there’s a way the Falcons can hide the balls (call it a HIDE-GATE??) when Rodgers is set to take the field they might have a shot. But that’s not going to happen is it?

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 5-3

Week 9 vs. Tampa Bay (away), Thursday, November 3
Mike Smith and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be better acquainted with each other by week 9 and ready to welcome his old team back to Tampa Bay for the second game of the series. It’s a short week following a visit from Green Bay so the Falcons will be at a slight disadvantage. You can always rely on the Falcons to slip up in the most unlikely place. This could be one such slipup.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 5-4

Week 10 vs. Philadelphia (away), Sunday, November 13
By week 10 the Atlanta Falcons could be feeling the strain of the season, desperate to go into a much-needed bye week. The Eagles are pegged as one of the beatable teams in preseason betting outlooks for several reasons – the Chip Kelly mess that needs to be cleaned up, the lack of a viable quarterback and, well, a whole new culture being put into place. All these thinks make the Eagles a risky bet.

One has to fancy the Falcons as a result, even if it is an away game. The Falcons should win. Still, there’s always the chance that by week 10 Doug Pederson and the Eagles start to gel and a tired Falcons side might be ripe for the taking. The smarter bet might be to take the Falcons, but we’re chancing an Eagles win on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 5-5

Week 11 BYE

Week 12 vs. Arizona, Sunday, November 27
Coming off a bye week the Atlanta Falcons welcome Bruce Aryan and the Arizona Cardinals, who are coming off their best season and reaching the NFC Championship game.  This is a tough assignment, even with a bye week to prepare.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 5-6

Week 13 vs. Kansas City, Sunday, December 4
Kansas City Chiefs turnaround an abysmal start to the season to win ten in a row and finish the season with an 11-5 record. Going on to hand Houston an embarrassing 30-0 loss in the wildcard round as well before their run finally ended in a 27-20 loss to the New England Patriots. Kansas City are a solid team and proved just how tough they are to beat. But they’ll be on the road and playing their second road game in as many weeks after a date at Mile High. Falcons should take this one at home.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 6-6

Week 14 vs. Los Angeles (away), Sunday, December 11
The Rams are no easy assignment particularly on the road but this is a side still retooling and revamping on both sides of the ball. Defences is further ahead than their offense some would say. In any event, this is a side that might be in the midst of growing pains in a new city with a new fan base. It won’t be easy, no question, but the Falcons could take this one.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 7-6

Week 15 vs. San Francisco, Sunday, December 18
With the Chip Kelly experiment failing so spectacularly in Philadelphia faith in the coach is waning. It doesn’t help that former star quarterback Colin Kaepernick wants out of San Francisco too. There are a lot of question marks in San Fran right now that any positive outlook would be wildly optimistic. As such, this one looks like a road win for the Falcons on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 8-6

Week 16 vs. Carolina (away), Saturday, December 24
Carolina Panthers in week 15 on the road? Unless, the Panthers freefall in 2016 this is a game they’ll be winning with a view towards the playoffs.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 8-7

Week 17 vs. New Orleans, Sunday, January 1
The final game of the season is against Drew Brees and the Saints at the Superdome. This could be a wild shootout, which it often is when these two sides meet. A lot hinges on where these two teams stand in the division and in the playoff face, if at all. Home advantage tips it to the Falcons – Drew Brees and the Saints aren’t the same on the road as they are at the Superdome. So for that reason, we’ll tip it to the hosts. But anything can happen really. It wouldn’t be a shocker if it were to go the other way.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 9-7

NFL Season Win Total Prediction: According to our bold game-by-game predictions the Falcons are headed towards cracking the 7.5 projected season win total. We’re predicting a 9-7 SU season, which is slightly better than last year. It does seem optimistic but with Dann Quinn in his second year and the Falcons showing some positive signs last term it’s not that big of a stretch. In any event, feel free to disagree. That’s the nature of things. For our money, we’re recommending the OVER 7.5 at +130 NFL odds.

NFL Picks: Over 7.5 at +130

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