Cleveland has become one of the league’s best underdog betting odds stories, and this week they get a good chance to continue on their recent hot streak in Jacksonville as -5 ½ favorites.
Now that the Browns have attained a winning record through six weeks, it’s tough to say whether or not they are going to hold that record. However so far through five games, this team is playing well. While their defense hasn’t been as good as expected, the offense has been effective, which is a lot more than most people were expecting, especially with Brian Hoyer. However Hoyer has been playing well. He’s already thrown for over 1200 yards (245 per game) and seven touchdowns this season, and the Browns’ running game has been carrying the team. Ben Tate is back and looking fresh after scoring two touchdowns last week, and now they get to go to Jacksonville. Naturally, the NFL odds have been trending upward so far this week.
After opening at -3, the NFL odds have been quickly rising. By Monday afternoon the odds had already touched -4, and now here today, the Browns are favored by an incredible -5 ½. This is still the Browns we are talking about, however the Jaguars haven’t given us much in regards to confidence. Their running game has been atrocious, and even if Storm Johnson turns into a solid runner, they still likely won’t have too much prolonged success with him. Blake Bortles is progressing, but the #3 overall pick has some work to do, but not a lot of weapons to do it with. Without a run game, these young receivers don’t have a lot to offer, however this week could change that. The total is somewhat high for these two offenses, and it’s only because both of their defenses are playing badly.
The Sharp Pick
The Browns have not lost if you’ve played them in your NFL picks this season, but on the road and laying -5 ½ could be a tall order for this young team, no matter who they are playing. The Browns are 3-0-2 ATS in 2014, but in their last five games as a favorite, they are 1-3-1 ATS. But the Jaguars are not much better. They are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games as an underdog, and overall as a dog, they are not much better in their last 27 games, cashing only seven of the 27 games.
With that being said, the spread is off limits for me here. I am leaning a little bit towards the Jags here, but to tell you the truth, neither of them are trustworthy. However what could be trustworthy is a play on the total, and with these two bad defenses, the over looks like a pretty good bet.
The 'over' is 5-2 in the Jags last seven home games, and in all of those they were an underdog. The 'over' is also 4-0 in the Jags’ last four games following an ATS win. For the Browns, the 'over' has cashed in four of their five games this season, and the 'over' is 5-2 in their last seven road games. On top of that, the 'over' is 9-4 in Cleveland’s last 13 conference games, and 8-0 in a game following an ATS win. Look for the total of 45 to be a little low, so add the 'over' to your NFL picks.
Free NFL Pick: Over 45 at Pinnacle Sports