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NFL Football Picks: Wild Card Weekend Biggest Line Moves and Why

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NFL Football Picks: Wild Card Weekend Biggest Line Moves and Why
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - DECEMBER 29: Boston Scott #35 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates with his teammates after scoring a touchdown against the New York Giants during the third quarter in the game at MetLife Stadium on December 29, 2019 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Sarah Stier/Getty Images/AFP

Somebody is wrong. The sportsbooks’ oddsmakers are usually credited with putting out sharp numbers this time of year. The betting public does not always agree and that is especially true this year, with sides and totals moving all over the place on NFL odds.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Saturday, Jan. 4, 4:35 pm ET (ESPN) – at NRG Stadium

Live Odds  // Line History // Matchup Breakdown

You would have thought Buffalo worked out a deal with Kansas City this week to let Patrick Mahomes be their quarterback this week the way the total has jumped. The total jumped like the stock market did to start 2020 (comparably speaking) from 39.5 to 44.

What adds to the intrigue is this was largely thought of as public money, as most handicappers and other presumed experts about the NFL were saying UNDER when the total was 41. Upon close inspection on Thursday evening, both cash wagered and NFL picks placed are running in the low 50’s on the OVER, meaning there are other forces at work like possibly big money or sharps trusting Deshaun Watson and the Buffalo offense can have big games.

With the Bills 6-2 SU, 6-0-2 ATS and 6-2 UNDER, they have dictated tempo on the road and the UNDER looks more right than ever at adjusted price.

Free NFL Football Pick: Under (-105) at 5Dimes


Tennessee Titans vs New England Patriots

Saturday, Jan. 4, 4:25 pm ET (CBS) – at Gillette Stadium

Live Odds  // Line History // Matchup Breakdown

The total in this AFC affair is up three points to 44.5 and one could make sense of this. Though New England’s offense has not been up to its usual standards, they still finished at 26.2 PPG, which was good enough for seventh overall.

Since Ryan Tannehill took the reins over Tennessee, the Titans have averaged over 30 PPG in his 10 starts.

Say what you will about New England’s defense, they’ve been more vulnerable in the last five games in permitting 21.6 PPG. And if you discount Tennessee’s contest with Houston, were the Texans were not available emotionally, the Titans have given up 25.3 PPG in their previous six contests.

With Tennessee 9-2 OVER when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season, we’ll back it.

Free NFL Football Pick: Over 44.5 (-105) at 5Dimes


Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Sunday, Jan. 5, 1:05 pm ET (FOX) – at Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Live Odds  // Line History // Matchup Breakdown

Yet another total is on the rise, this time in the NFC.  The Vikings and Saints total climbed like firefighters trying to put out a third-floor fire, going from 46 to 49.5. Suffice to say, this has little to do with Kirk Cousins (unless you are thinking scoop and score or a Pick 6) and a lot more to do with Drew Brees.

Since a post-bye week dud against Atlanta, Brees and the bayou boys have averaged a sensational 36.2 PPG.

Now, Minnesota is 19-10 UNDER as a road underdog of which Cousins has made a mostly minor contribution, with the Vikings defense doing most of the work.

Still, that’s a big leap for two teams permitting a combined 40.2 PPG and who have been consistent on defense all year. While acknowledging the previous two meetings have reached the 50-point barrier and beyond, the defenses have the talent and the knowledge to slow the other down and 27-17 final sounds right.

Free NFL Football Pick: Under 49.5 (-102) at 5 Dimes


Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, Jan. 5, 4:40 pm ET (NBC) – at Lincoln Financial Field

Live Odds  // Line History // Matchup Breakdown

If this wasn’t a playoff game, hard to imagine with all the injuries these two teams have and it it was the first Sunday in December rather than January, many football bettors would probably pass because of too many unknowns. However, this is a postseason tilt and hungry NFL bettors crave the action and are stating their case.

Philadelphia was sent out as one-point favorite. That lasted about as long as it takes most people to wolf down a Philly cheesesteak. Afterwards, the Eagles had flown to +2 or +1.5 since.

Three weeks ago, might have lined up with the Seahawks if they were priced this way, but with them having as many injured as the Eagles, with there’s more fresh, Philadelphia appears in better shape to adapt at this point.

No question one has consider Seattle, who has won and covered five in a row at Philadelphia, still, the Eagles have won four in a row with the Hawks 1-3 SU in the same span.

Free NFL Football Pick: Eagles + 2(-115) at 5Dimes

Writer/handicapper Doug Upstone is 24-13 on free picks the last nine weeks for line moves. His monitored picks in the NFL are 87-65 the last two years. Make sure to follow Doug‘s free plays at SportsBookReview.com.