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NFL Football Picks: Week 3 Fades

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NFL Football Picks: Week 3 Fades

One of the beautiful aspects of the NFL has always been competitive balance. While there were always poor teams and those who were not very good for years, at least the point spread was the great equalizer.

But with how the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets are playing and the point spreads we are seeing on them, it’s starting to look more like the NBA on any given night. With certain NFL odds so high the games are virtually not worth betting. Of sure, one could take flyer on either side 17 or more points, but for a Best Bets or for a group of Top Plays in a given week, that’s tough.

How this hampers us for NFL picks is that reduces the number of choices we have, which could and does happen in December, but not in September.

With a little extra effort, we have three road teams to fade for NFL picks in Week 3.

Atlanta Falcons (1-1 SU&ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1 SU&ATS)

Sunday, Sept. 22, 1:00 pm ET (CBS) – at Lucas Oil Stadium

Free Pick: Fade Falcons +2 (-115) with YouWager

In this nonconference clash, both teams avoided and 0-2 start with come from behind wins. Though Atlanta got the win over Philadelphia, it should not have been that difficult with how the Eagles offense played for two and half quarters.

Indianapolis has shown they are more just about Andrew Luck and they have a tremendous offensive line and punishing run game. The Colts defense is top of the line, but one element they can do to beat the Falcons is shutdown their abysmal running game, that is 28th in the league.

With Atlanta 5-14 ATS on the road the last few years and 0-8 ATS against the AFC, play against the Dirty Birds.

Free Pick: Fade Falcons +2 (-115) with YouWager

Carolina Panthers (0-2 SU&ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (0-1-1, 2-0 ATS)

Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:05 pm ET (FOX) – at State Farm Stadium

Free Pick: Fade Panthers -2.5 (-115) with BetOnline

With Cam Newton having reinjured his foot that happened in Week 3 of the preseason, there are reports he might not play against Arizona. With nobody really sure what will happen, betting markets are holding steady as of early Wednesday afternoon (pay attention for updates) with Carolina at -2.5.

Even if the Cam-ster were to play he would not be 100 percent and one can surmise that might explain why he was so inaccurate in the loss to Tampa Bay, unable to drive the ball.

Regardless, Newton or not, Arizona has played well enough to conceivably be 2-0 with greater efficiency in the red zone. That’s the one aspect of rookie quarterbacks that is usually true, they can help their team move the ball, but in tight spaces, they cannot make that pinpoint throw and right decision that leads to a touchdown.

The Panthers just don’t look right and are 2-9 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite. If you agree with us, take the points now for NFL picks, because if Newton is ultimately “out”, the line will change.

Free Pick: Fade Panthers -2.5 (-115) with BetOnline

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2 SU&ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0 SU&ATS)

Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:25 pm ET (CBS) – at Levi’s Stadium

Free Pick: Fade Steelers +6.5 (-115) with 5Dimes

The Steelers are in trouble, big trouble. While they claimed to feel comfortable after first not having Le’Veon Bell and then Antonio Brown, the loss of Ben Roethlisberger is asking too much. This was Pittsburgh’s offensive foundation for several seasons and to have them all gone in a span of 18 games, that is a nearly impossible mountain to climb.

Add in the Steelers have to face a hot and rejuvenated San Francisco squad in their home opener. The 49ers are averaging 36 PPG and while a couple of scores have come by the defense, they still are points and Pitt’s putrid defense is surrendering 30.5 PPG and is 28th in total defense.

Give the 6.5 points as San Fran wins by double digits.

Free Pick: Fade Steelers +6.5 (-115) with 5Dimes

Writer/Handicapper Doug Upstone was a documented 57-37, 60.6 percent at sports betting monitors in the NFL since last season. This year he’s started .500 for this article and expects to improve. Follow his NFL picks here at SportsBookReview.com.