NFL Football False Favorites and Top (Under)Dogs for Preseason Week 3

Buffalo Bills

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, August 23, 2016 6:21 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 23, 2016 6:21 PM UTC

Like usual, the NFL preseason has made little sense and depending on your handicapping style, you are either up, down or about where you started. We know where we prefer to be at this time.

Over the last 13 years this time of year I am 80-56, but on these videos for NFL picks this preseason, I am a mediocre 2-4, with the methods I have used in the past just not working. That is not to say they are wrong, rather, circumstances and teams have not performed in the same manner as in the past. I have enjoyed too much success to have a knee-jerk reaction and will instead follow the path and look to supply you with three more NFL picks in the only semi-meaningful game of the preseason for each team and look to get above .500 against the NFL odds.


Would Not Count on Favored New Orleans
Both Pittsburgh and New Orleans have not looked good, both 0-2 at this point. Nevertheless, somebody is going to come through and post a victory this week.

You can make the case the Steelers have been lesser of the two teams since both their defeats came at home while the Saints dumped a pair on the road. However, Pittsburgh has the better roster, as evidenced by fast-paying sportsbooks like JustBet making New Orleans a one-point home favorite.

Look for Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh to come out and establish themselves against the Saints. The last 27 times a team was a -1 preseason home choice, they are 7-20 ATS, making New Orleans a false favorite.


Division Partners Buffalo and New York Jets Offer Value in Week 3
Of course, you have to take preseason numbers for what they are, not terribly meaningful for many reasons. It is wise to find extremes which might have a more telling story, with a foreshadowing of events. Buffalo is a +2.5 point underdog at Washington, which sounds like the right number. Both teams are 1-1 SU and ATS, yet the Bills have +137 yardage differential while the Redskins are -74. No matter how you slice, that is a massive difference. Also, when home teams like Washington allowed three points or less in the first half of previous game, against opponent after a win by 14 or more points, they are pathetic 4-23 ATS.

Also on the docket is the annual August battle of Gotham City played over in New Jersey. The Jets have controlled this rivalry, always taking it more seriously than the Giants and are 16-7 and 16-6-1 ATS. Normally, I would be ready to take the Giants in this spot as -1 point favorites if Tom Coughlin was the coach. But the G-Men have offensive line issues and have committed eight turnovers in two games, being thoroughly outplayed. The Jets are stronger up front on both sides of the line of scrimmage and should win unless they are completely flat.

comment here