NFL First and 10: It’s Todd Gurley Time For Packers vs. Rams

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, October 27, 2018 6:39 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 27, 2018 6:39 PM UTC

Week 8 is here at last and there are several player prop picks worth buying a ticket for. All of these odds come from Bet365 sportsbook.

Season Props Record: 34-26

We finally had a losing week after running hot for seemingly the last month. Duke Johnson and the horrible play calling in Cleveland killed us, but we got saved by a few well-placed unders, and only went 4-5 on the week with one refunded ticket due to injury. However, Week 8 is here and bet365 has several NFL Prop Picks worth buying a ticket for.

Todd Gurley OVER 20.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)

The Rams are so good this season that in some of their blow-out games where they are up three or more touchdowns, they have decided to rest Todd Gurley down the stretch. Last week against the 49ers he only had 15 carries before they pulled him. That won’t be the case this week with the Packers coming off a bye. The Rams will need every bit of Gurley, and I expect him to see a huge workload.

Todd Gurley OVER 97.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

The only way to keep Aaron Rodgers and the talented passing offense of the Packers off the field is to run the football. At home, Gurley will surely see more than 20 carries, and with him averaging an impressive 4.8 yards per carry, 100 rushing yards should be golden if the Rams are playing with the lead in this one. Green Bay has been pretty good at limiting running backs’ touchdowns this season, but they are still allowing 4.7 yards per carry, and they gave up 148 rushing yards to the Niners before their bye. Even rested, this defense will give up yards to Gurley on the ground.

Phillip Lindsay OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

With Royce Freeman already ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Chiefs, Phillip Lindsay has close to the same level of value as Gurley, just to a smaller scale. Devontae Booker is still around, but he should just be used as a change of pace back on Sunday for the Broncos. Lindsay has been extremely impressive this season running and catching the ball. Even with Freeman available, Lindsay has collected over 320 totals yards in the last four weeks, with 238 of those yards coming on the ground.

Phillip Lindsay OVER 85.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-125)

Along with the injury to Freeman, the Chiefs have been downright horrible against running backs this season. What is one way to ensure Patrick Mahomes can’t sling the ball down field that much? Control the time of possession by running the ball. This should be Vance Joseph’s game plan Sunday. The Chiefs are allowing an average of 174 total yards per game to running backs this season. Even on the road, I expect Lindsay to eat in order to quiet down Arrowhead Stadium.

Isaiah Crowell UNDER 52.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Isaiah Crowell has a lot working against him this week. The Jets are more than touchdown underdog on the road, which is not a great game script for a running back. On top of that, the Bears’ defense has been stout against the run this season. Chicago is allowing only 3.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs this year, so as long as they don’t allow Crowell to break a long run, they should hold him to under 50 rushing yards. In games where Crowell’s longest run is 21 yards or less, he is averaging less than 2.5 yards per carry.

Doug Martin UNDER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

With Marshawn Lynch out for the foreseeable future, and all hope being sucked from Raiders fans with every passing game, it seems unlikely that Oakland will be in a position to give Doug Martin a lot of carries this week. Jalen Richard is still there, and I expect him to handle some of the ground work, as well as all the passing downs. That leaves first and second down for Martin, in a game where the Raiders are home underdogs against a solid defense.

Aaron Jones UNDER 42.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

The Packers’ backfield by committee is anyone’s guess as to who will see the most work on the ground, but if the Packers are playing from behind against this talented Rams team, it might not matter much. We may see a lot of Ty Montgomery in the backfield if that happens, and even if it doesn’t, Jones still has to compete with Jamaal Williams for touches. Fade this line with glee.

Robert Woods OVER 82.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Speaking of that talented Rams passing attack, Robert Woods has been down-right special this season. He has racked up 600 receiving yards in seven games, and he could add another 90 or more this week against the Packers. Green Bay has been torched by capable passing offenses this year, most notably over their last two games against the Lions and 49ers. The Rams playing at home will drop bombs on this secondary, and I think Woods in in line for a big play to lead to the over here.

Jordy Nelson OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

With Amari Cooper out of town, Martavis Bryant is expected to take over some extra work. Jared Cook should also still handle the middle of the field, but Jordy Nelson is the guy you want to buy stock in now that Cooper is gone. He has not seen very much work over the last two weeks, which has lowered his prop odds. However, in a game they could be playing from behind, I expect Nelson to see close to double digit targets.

Kenny Golladay OVER 64.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

The legend of Kenny Golladay grows by the week, and while he was locked down by the Dolphins last week, that should change in Week 8 against the Seahawks. Seattle’s new-look pass defense has been very inconsistent this season, and on the road in Detroit will not help that. In three home games this season, Golladay has 17 catches on 28 targets and a total of 265 receiving yards. He should eat against the Seahawks coming to town.

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