With player prop bets growing in popularity in the last few years, bettors continue to find creative ways to maintain an edge. Specifically, yardage totals, receptions, and even touchdowns can be predicted with some degree of certainty. We’re light on specific Week 8 props this week but have some good values to jump on.
Cam Newton Season Rushing Touchdowns
The last two games for Cam Newton and this New England Patriots offense have been worrisome and telling about the lack of a real surrounding cast to work with. It’s a big reason why Tom Brady left the team last year and why Newton was never destined for greatness in 2020. Overcoming such a bad group of playmakers is impossible.
Newton’s also not played well as a passer, limiting how effective the offense can be even if everyone else plays well. Totaling five interceptions in two games means he’s on notice that he needs to perform quickly. Otherwise the Patriots might be better off going with Jarrett Stidham so they can see what he has before they draft a rookie high.
I think Newton can figure things out though. He’s been a hammer on the ground and that’s going to come back in a bigger role this week. He had just 15 carries over the last two weeks after totaling 35 over the first three weeks.
This season-long bet is for him to get five more rushing scores in eight games. Josh McDaniels will get this passing game working more off play-action and rollouts because he’s a smart guy, and seeing Newton on straight shotgun dropbacks has been ineffective and inefficient. Watch for Newton to add a touchdown on the ground this week against the Bills.
Tua Tagovailoa Total Touchdowns Week 8
Betting on rookies is tough business because of the volatile nature of the position and status of bad teams like the Dolphins. Miami’s offensive line has been aided by a quick passing game and scheme, and while Tua Tagovailoa can execute that, he’s still a rookie who lacks an A-plus receiver and experienced unit. But there’s enough talent within Tua and his surrounding cast to be able to hit this over on touchdowns with an aggressive game plan.
Miami’s passing game has seen Ryan Fitzpatrick, who borders between serviceable and awful, throw at least two touchdowns in four of six games. Tua has better accuracy, touch, and playmaking ability than Fitzpatrick and will surely play confidently. While the Rams defense ranks incredibly well as an overall unit, I think he’ll have success this week.
Davante Parker and Preston Williams lead a talented but unheralded receiving corps, and Mike Gesicki is one of the best tight ends in the league despite breaking out recently. Putting a high-energy quarterback like Tua into the game can lead to big plays if the line can keep him upright long enough to extend plays.
There’s enough that I don’t love about the Rams’ personnel on defense to be optimistic and take the over on Tua’s total touchdown count.
Free NFL pick: Over 1.5 TDs at -120 with BetOnline
Melvin Gordon Total Yards Week 8
A solid addition from this off-season at the perfect price, Melvin Gordon has had a nice statline for the floundering Denver Broncos. It’s not Gordon’s fault that Drew Lock has dealt with inconsistencies and injuries, and the entire team seems like a shell of its promising self. All we’re concerned about is Gordon getting touches this week.
He’s averaged almost 70 yards per game on the ground on just 16 rushes, and a career-low 11.4 receiving yards per game. I think that’s bound to jump as Lock is back and the offense is going to be closer to full strength. The numbers Gordon’s put up haven’t benefited from being a coercive unit.
The Chargers have been far from a lockdown defense despite having so much talent. They’re only 23rd in passing yards and 14th in rushing yards allowed, making Gordon a major boom play this week. We’re going to lay down a few units on this NFL pick and expect for the offense to prioritize Gordon more than usual.
Free NFL pick: Over 82.5 rush and receiving yards at -110 at BetOnline