The best weekend of the NFL season in terms of quality arrives. I’ve got three of my favorite TD scorers priced up from the games this weekend. Here are my NFL picks for the touchdown scorers of the Divisional round.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Saturday, January 16th, 2021 – 8:15 PM ET at Bills Stadium
The AFC games this weekend have the higher totals NFL lines. That's why they’re the first places I’m going to look for some value in the TD scorer market. It should be a cracker in New York, with two of the form teams in the second half of the season meeting each other. Fortunately, the bad weather predicted earlier in the week seems to be avoiding this game, so there shouldn’t be any excuse for it not being a high scorer.
The Ravens are a run-heavy team and should have success in that area against the Bills, who gave up 160 yards on the ground last week, with Taylor and Hines getting to 75 each. They’ve got JK Dobbins on fire to end the season, and at over even money +110 on Intertops is a good price for him to score in his 8th consecutive game. However, it’s the passing game I’m looking towards.
The Bills are one of the poorer sides in the league at defending the Tight End, and that’s a position that Lamar Jackson and the Ravens like to use. Mark Andrews has had a quiet season by his standards, with only 7 TDs in 5 different games. However, he’s still frequently used and targeted in the RedZone, and at +175 I think it’s a good price for him to find the endzone.
Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 17th, 2021 - 3:05 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium
The other side of the AFC provides the highest total line of the weekend with the best betting sites setting it over 57 points, and the Super Bowl favorites are in as double-digit favorites at most places. It’s the earlier game on Sunday, and it should be a cracker.
The Chiefs have had their bye week, and the main players have had at least two weeks now after resting most of them for the final game of the season. That could mean them starting slow as they did in the whole playoffs last season, and as we saw last week, the Browns are capable of a fast start after they took a 4 TD lead into the second quarter last week.
The Chiefs still made their way to winning the Super Bowl last year, and they’re the most deadly offense in the league. If they get behind this could be closing in on 70 points. So, I’m not going to take a -200 on Kelce or Hill, but I'll go for the man who gets the third-highest amount of snaps in Demarcus Robinson. He will get even more snaps with Sammy Watkins ruled out for the Chiefs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, January 10th, 2021 - 6:40 PM ET at Mercedes Benz Superdome
An NFC South re-match closes the divisional round, and the Saints are rightfully favorites after quite comfortably winning both regular-season games between the teams. The Saints are fourth favorites in terms of Super Bowl odds with the Bucs just behind them.
The Saints are as healthy as they’ve been all season and have done well defensively this year against the Bucs, so I’m a little apprehensive picking anyone on that side of the ball. The Bucs run defense is one of the best in the league, but one place they do seem to struggle is defending against slot receivers.
That might be a position the Saints take advantage of with Michael Thomas. Thomas returned last week with a TD against the Bears, he should be frequently targeted here, and I like him to find the endzone again this week.
TD Scorer: Michael Thomas anytime TD +110 at Intertops
*The picks reflect the line at the moment the writer made the plays, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.