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NFL Divisional Round: Picks That Pack the Value

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NFL Divisional Round: Picks That Pack the Value
Aaron Donald #99 of the Los Angeles Rams. Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images/AFP

We are four games away from the NFL Conference championships. In that interim of time, we look to uncover the best value plays for the divisional round of football.

The Super Wild Card round ended up with the best value being on underdogs, with four spread winners and the Over a modest 3-2-1 winner on totals. What is the likelihood of a majority of winners being on one side against the NFL odds again? Not for certain where that will fall, especially after witnessing line moves and adjustments at various betting sites before the games commence.

Nevertheless, we have eight full options on sides and totals this weekend and here is one person’s opinion on what looks like the best values on the board.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers

Saturday, January 16, 2021 – 04:35 PM EST at Lambeau Field

Green Bay comes in rested and ready to go to start their postseason and faces the kind of opponent that might be a rugged matchup for them. The Los Angeles Rams mostly dominated Seattle except for a few different plays and earned the right to move on in the NFL Playoffs.

If Matt LeFleur’s Packers' offense has a weakness, it's that they are not overly physical. The offensive line executes extremely well as a group, they just don’t overpower opposing defenses. The loss of David Bakhtiari at left tackle changes the line, and while the Pack has extremely versatile linemen who can jump right in, they are going against the NFL best defense led by Aaron Donald.

If L.A. slows Green Bay’s run game and corner Jalen Ramsey makes life hard for Davante Adams, the Rams could definitely slow the NFL’s top-scoring offense. The Green Bay defense is not overwhelming, but they are conceding just 17.2 PPG in their past five contests. With L.A. having QB injury issues, it's not likely that the visitor registers many points.

With the temperature expected to be in the upper 20’s at the frozen tundra and falling throughout the game, that could freeze the Rams offense. Add to that that No. 6 seeds in the playoffs are 23-6 for the UNDER, and a low score makes sense at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review) and other top sportsbooks.

NFL Pick: Under 45.5 (-100) at GTbets

LAR-GB U/45.5(-100)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills

Saturday, January 16, 2021 - 08:15 PM EST at Bills Stadium

Toss out the crazy shootout with Cleveland and in Baltimore’s other six most recent contests, the Ravens defense has surrendered only 13.1 PPG on average. Since the second Sunday of November, QB Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense has been hotter than an electric blanket left on high, averaging 35.5 PPG. Something has to give right? One could make that case and that is basically correct, but there is more to be determined.

As good as Baltimore’s defense can play, Allen’s playing like a Top 5 quarterback and he has more than enough perimeter weapons to move the ball. In addition, he's a tremendous runner with the pigskin. At a minimum, the Bills should score 24 points, with 27 to 30 not out of their range.

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Buffalo’s defense is exploitable and the proof is in permitting 472 yards to Indianapolis. Once the Bills defense starts playing defensive, you can run or pass against them. Enter Lamar Jackson.

Jackson has Baltimore’s running game purring like a Ferrari, gaining more than 260 YPG rushing in their past five outings. Though Jackson only threw for 165 yards against Tennessee last week, he was on target (17 of 24) and that win had to boost his confidence. If he hits a couple of passes early, the Buffalo pass defense is vulnerable and we could have a real shootout, weather permitting. With Buffalo 7-1 OVER after two or more consecutive wins, for NFL picks, we’re on the OVER.

NFL Pick: OVER 50.5 (-105) at BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)

BAL-BUF O/50.5(-105)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

Nick Chubb has been an important part of the Browns offense so far.
Nick Chubb #24 of the Cleveland Browns. Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images/AFP

Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 17, 2021 - 03:05 PM EST at Arrowhead Stadium

Two ways to look at this AFC encounter, either Kansas City spanks Cleveland by 20 or this comes down to a one-possession game.

Online sportsbooks have the Chiefs at -10. Though Cleveland ended their years of futility at Pittsburgh, they were outscored 30-13 after building a 35-7 lead and gave up more than five football fields of passing yards (501). Consider this, the Browns did something similar in beating Tennessee and couldn’t hold a lead versus Baltimore in falling 47-42, Patrick Mahomes is no doubt excited for this matchup.

Yet, what does Cleveland have to lose? Their previous playoff game before last week was when Puddle of Mudd released “Blurry” (2002). Nobody is giving them a chance and they can play in high-scoring contests, having scored 41 or more three times in their last half dozen starts. Something to note when doing your weekend NFL betting.

Forget K.C.'s last outing in the loss to the Chargers with many backups playing. In their last seven triumphs, their largest margin of victory is six points. Cleveland hangs around catching double digits.

NFL Pick: Browns +10 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Browns +10(-108)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.