Our Last Chance Value Picks are now 20-4 ATS over the last eight weeks, and we’re going for more this week as we peruse the NFL board, grab the best numbers, and keep on cashing tickets!
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers
Saturday, January 16th, 2021 – 4:35 PM ET at Lambeau Field
Before we begin, let me say that the picks that you see in this column are all predicated on getting the best value from the oddsmakers. Instead of chasing the steam and getting bad numbers after the books have adjusted them based on the sharp action and/or public money, we go in the opposite direction and take advantage of those weak lines.
However, as the games whittle down to a precious few, those line moves are generally not as steep or significant. Nevertheless, they are still there for the taking, and three of the four games this weekend have had line movement. Whereas the Ravens/Bills contest has remained stagnant at Buffalo -2 ½ since the opener – at least at the time of this writing.
As for this game, getting any favorite under (or underdog above) a critical number always catches my eye and, in this case, we see that the best betting sites in the industry have been uniform in dropping Green Bay from -7 ½ to -6 ½, which smacks of sharp money because Joe Q. Public doesn’t ordinarily chase underdogs against household names like Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.
The LA defense is a force to be reckoned with, but Green Bay has had two weeks to lick their wounds and prepare for the lowest seed remaining in the NFC. Let’s lay it and like it with the Packers.
Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 17th, 2021 - 3:05 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium
The Browns certainly look like a live dog here, after stunning the Steelers and advancing into the divisional round against the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs. However, let’s not dismiss the notion that the Browns could just be happy to be here, after failing to make the playoffs since 2002 and coming off of a victory over their most bitter divisional rival.
Like Green Bay in the NFC, the Chiefs copped a first-round bye in the AFC and should be well-rested and extremely prepared to take on the upstart Cleveland Browns. Although it would be nice to get below -10, as it can be a critical number, at least we have hopped onto it and will get a push if this one lands on the number as opposed to losing with -11 that the NFL odds reflected at the onset.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, January 17th, 2021 - 6:40 pm ET at Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Here is the marquee matchup of the weekend, and the NFL wisely saved the best for last. Based on the previous meetings between these clubs, you wouldn’t think this game is anything special. The Saints handily defeated the Bucs in the first meeting and decimated them in the second. Tom Brady hardly looked like the proverbial GOAT, while Drew Brees was his routinely sublime self.
As good as Brady is, and regardless of how potent his offense can be, the Saints’ defense has had little issue clamping down in pass coverage and rendering him impotent over the first two games. Many believe this will only add fuel to Brady’s fire, but most of the time positional mismatches trump emotion. Let’s not forget that, although Tom Brady may be considered the greatest of all time, Drew Brees is one of the greatest and not too far behind Tom Terrific.
Save a little juice with your NFL picks, and bet New Orleans over at Heritage.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.