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NFL Divisional Round: Bullish Bets You Can Make with Confidence

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NFL Divisional Round: Bullish Bets You Can Make with Confidence
Jamaal Williams #30 of the Green Bay Packers with Aaron Rodgers #12 on October 25, 2020 in Houston, Texas. Logan Riely/Getty Images/AFP

The NFL Divisional round is here and here at SBR we got the best bets for you. The matchups this weekend are exciting, with two games on both Saturday and Sunday for us to dig into. We have two bullish bets that are good plays to cash in on. Make sure to get your plays in early before the lines jump closer to kickoff.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers

Saturday, January 16, 2021 – 04:35 PM EST at Lambeau Field

It was stunning to see the Rams make it past the Seahawks with an injured Jared Goff last week. While Goff can have some great moments in a clean pocket, he's become a shell of the playmaker he was. His great arm talent often fails due to mechanical breakdowns and panicked decisions. 

He's a liability in an offense that should run smoothly with this elite scheme and solid surrounding cast. And yet the Rams are here with a top-10 rush offense and 14th-ranked passing game, and an elite defense to keep them in games. This line has moved slightly in their favor from seven to 6.5 since opening.

It's hard to justify taking the Rams on the road. They're banged up throughout the roster, including Goff, and his track record in the cold is awful. His play has dipped in temperatures under 32 degrees to a level that if repeated, will lead to a Packers blowout. 

The Packers continue to run a higher-level version of the Rams' offense with Aaron Rodgers engineering it at the highest level. As much as I wish the Packers had a better receiving depth chart and tight end to take the ceiling of this team to the extreme, the roster is great and Rodgers makes magic with the playmakers he has.

The other key will be seeing how Mike Pettine does against the Rams' offense. Goff has to execute at a level not likely, but if he does, the Rams will be able to light it up. Pettine is way to conservative and predictable and this defense, as good as it can be, is reliant on talent and making individual plays to cover for a mediocre coordinator. 

I like a low-scoring game where the Packers win comfortably. A 21-6 win might look extreme on paper, but I don't think Goff can play well enough under duress in the cold. Too much will have to go right for them to cover the number posted by sportsbooks

Free NFL pick: Packers -6.5 (-114) and Under 45.5 (-112) parlay for (+255) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Rams-Packers Parlay(+255)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 17, 2021 - 03:05 PM EST at Arrowhead Stadium

The biggest line of the week lands between the bottom-seed of the AFC remaining and the defending Super Bowl champions. On paper, the Browns have a shot in this one. Their strong running game behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt must be the focal point, with scattered deep shots off play-action mixed in. But Cleveland doesn't really have the playmakers to compete if Kansas City is sharp, and the NFL lines reflect that.

The lack of speed at receiver for the Browns has been a massive factor this year. Odell Bekcham helped spread out defenses enough for Baker Mayfield to find underneath routes but even he wasn't enough. This offense struggles to score quickly because of it.

Protecting Baker and getting the most out of him will be obviously critical. He's been good enough to win over the last half of the year by asking him to be a solid game manager and occasionally a little more. All eyes are on him to be even better now.

He can't afford to get into a shootout with Patrick Mahomes, but the Browns secondary has given no indication they can prevent that. Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams missed a lot of time this year, and Ward's return will help. But missing Olivier Vernon is massive, and B.J. Goodson's status is up in the air.

The Browns simply don't have enough firepower to win. Maybe Kansas City toys with the Browns, but I'm buying this line down under 10, and betting the Browns don't reach 20 points in a big parlay play for my NFL picks

Free NFL pick: Chiefs -9.5 (-130) and Browns Don't Score Over 19.5 (+200) parlay for (+431) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Browns-Chiefs Parlay(+431)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.