The Conference Championship games are here, with the 1 seeds hosting in their respective conferences. The Packers will take on the Bucs in the NFC, while the Chiefs will matchup against the Bills in the AFC. Find out my favorite value picks for TD scorers in this Sunday’s games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, January 24th, 2021 – 3:05 PM ET at Lambeau Field
The NFC Championship game sees the Bucs traveling up to Lambeau to take on the Packers. It’s never easy for a warm-weather team to go North, but Tom Brady is definitely used to the cold from his years in New England, so the most important man on the team shouldn’t be bothered by the expected mid-20s temperatures. It looks like there’s a minor chance of snow, but the ground should be fine, and the NFL total has increased over the last couple of days, so people seem to think there will be points.
One bit of news that came out over the last couple of days is that Antonio Brown is out. So each pass-catcher beyond Evans and Godwin probably moves up the pecking order a little, and that’s where I’m looking for a bit of value here. The Packers have one very good cornerback in Jaire Alexander, you’d think he’ll be mainly on Evans, and that Godwin should get a lot of work in the slot.
I’m hoping that the good connection that Scotty Miller built with Tom Brady early in the season remains, as well as the beautiful move he pulled at the line of scrimmage last week late in the game, and he’ll take a few of the targets that Brown would have received. He’s scored 3 this year, mostly on deep shots, and the weather shouldn’t affect that aspect of Brady’s game here.
I’m also interested in Cameron Brate at tight end for them, again I think he’ll get more targets with AB out, and in recent weeks has been more involved in the passing game than Gronk has. He actually led the team in receiving yards last week with 50 from 4 receptions (a quarter of Brady’s yards). Two for this game then.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 17th, 2021 - 3:05 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium
The Bills make their first championship game since 1993 after beating the Ravens last week to face the Chiefs. These are very similar teams, with the same strengths, and both can score points at the drop of a hat. So you’ve got to be expecting a lot of points in this one, and that should mean a lot of TDs being scored. The Super Bowl odds have the Chiefs as favorites to win the whole thing, and 3 point favorites are about right for this game.
Due to the high scoring expected, there’s a distinct lack of value in TD scorer odds. Hill and Kelce unsurprisingly are heavily odds-on, so it’s trying to pick the best of the rest. The Chiefs look likely to be without Bashaud Breeland at corner, which should help out the likes of John Brown (+200), and Gabriel Davis (+300), both of whom are priced nicely at the best betting sites.
Dawson Knox at +250 is under consideration at tight end for the Bills, the Chiefs allowed 9 TDs to the position in the regular season, and Knox has already scored in the post-season.
On the Chiefs side of the ball, Mahomes will be playing as expected. Hill and Kelce are short on odds, so it’s picking your poison from the likes of Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and probably Clyde Edwards-Helaire (if he’s back from injury). I went for Robinson last week, and he didn’t make any catches. Hardman was involved a lot, and Edwards-Helaire should put up yards if he’s fit enough. They’re all avoidable for me to be honest.
For my NFL Picks, I’m plumping for someone on the Bills side of the ball. I’ll go for Smokey to make his mark, he finished last week with 8 from 11 targets last week, and Allen likes him.
TD Scorer: John Brown anytime TD +200 at BetOnline