There are only two games this weekend in the NFL Odds, and a way to take advantage of a short card is to parlay your two picks together for added value. Much like I do in the NBA, let’s try and pad our Super Bowl bankrolls by parlaying together our two picks this week.
New England heads into Mile High Stadium to play the Broncos as +4 ½ underdogs this week, with a total of 55 points. While the spread is very inviting for a play on the underdogs, I see the total being a much better wager this week. While some are forecasting a big time shootout game between two of the game’s best quarterbacks, I see this one a little differently. Sure there will likely be several touchdowns from either side, but 55 points seems like a bit to high.
The Patriots are playing great defense, and against the pass attack of the Broncos, no one is better than Bill Belichick. Throughout his career against Manning, either as a defensive coordinator or head coach, Manning is only 9-12 SU in the regular season and the playoffs. If you narrow it down to just his time with the Pats, Manning’s record drops to 6-11 SU against a Belichick defense.
Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will likely be playing with a lot of extra secondary help in this game, and they will probably routinely drop six to eight guys into coverage. While they will have to switch it up a little to account for the Broncos running game, the front three of the Pats are playing well despite being without Vince Wilfork.
In the end, I see this game being a slower and lower scoring game. The Broncos will run on the soft fronts for the Pats, and the Pats will surely run the ball a lot here in order to keep Manning off the field. Take the under as the first leg of the parlay.
The battle royal with cheese between the Seahawks and 49ers should be as good as advertised, as the NFL Odds hold the Hawks as -3 ½ favorites, with a total of 39. Despite the Niners being 3-2 SU (two of the wins in SF) against the Hawks over their last five meetings, Seattle is 5-0 ATS in those five games.
The Niners are healthier than they have been all season, and they are playing like it too. However even though another underdog bet would be golden, I see the total once again being the safest play. However with such a low total, I could see the over being the best value.
Neither team will be able to run the ball much on one another. The defenses are too good, and the aging backs on both teams are probably worn down from a long season. Both Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch have played 35 total games so far in the playoffs and regular season.
Especially for the 49ers, the passing game will have to be on point here. Michael Crabtree will likely occupy Richard Sherman all game, which means that Aquan Boldin and Vernon Davis will likely come up big. It goes the same for Russell Wilson and the Hawks if their running game comes out flat on Sunday. I see the over being the play here for our NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2-team parlay: NE/DEN UNDER 55 & SF/SEA OVER 39 (+260)