We are down to the final four of the NFL playoffs, and it might just be the four best teams in both conferences all season. All four of these teams are viable Super Bowl contenders, and the NFL Odds for them facing one another are out across the globe. Let’s take an opening look at the NFL Odds for the NFC and AFC Championship games, and see if there is any early week value from the games.
The #1 and #2 seed meet up from Denver this week for a right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, and the NFL Odds have the Broncos as big -4 ½ favorites this week, with a total of 55 points. Earlier last night, the NFL Odds had the Broncos as -5 ½ favorites, and sharp action everywhere on the Patriots lowered the line a full point in just 12 hours.
Now at -4 ½, it seems to be evening out, however it would not surprise me a bit to see this line drop some more before the end of the week. Tom Brady is very good in the playoffs as an underdog, and one of the reasons the line might have already dropped is the three times Brady has been a +5 or higher underdog in the playoffs, he has won SU all three times.
This game will likely come down to defense, and if that’s the case, the Pats look like the play as well. Their defense has been solid all season, and with Bill Belichick running the show, Peyton Manning is going to see a variety of coverages, and likely a lot of extra defensive backs. We will break it down all week, but right now it is really hard not to like the Pats for our free NFL picks.
San Francisco did not get the #2 seed, but that was because of the team they are currently facing. It also didn’t matter apparently. Despite having to play two road games already, the 49ers weathered the storm, and are heading into Seattle for the NFC Championship game. The NFL Odds have Seattle as a -3 ½ favorite, with a low total of only 39 ½ points.
These two teams have had some weird trends over the last few years. For instance, the Niners are 3-2 SU in their last five games overall against the Seahawks, however the Hawks are 5-0 ATS in those five games. A SU loss isn’t out of the question for Seattle, especially after losing, then getting back, then losing Percy Harvin again last week. If Harvin’s concussion fiasco from last week is still not behind him, it might put a chink in the armor of Seattle just big enough for the newly rejuvenated 49ers exploit it, and steal this game.
San Francisco will have several weapons back for this game that have not been with them in previous matchups with Seattle, and especially with Michael Crabtree healthy and apparently back close to 100%, the 49ers look really appealing here. Call me crazy, but I see both underdogs as possibly having some early week value. It obviously depends a lot on the upcoming week of practice, but if Harvin sits, I like the Niners a lot more than if he is playing.