Friday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
We have finally reached the end of the workweek, and it is time to take one final look into the NFC Championship game between the 49ers and Seahawks. Even though we have seen some slight line movement, this spread and total has not moved as much as the AFC title game. The NFL Odds have the Hawks still as -3 ½ favorites from home on Sunday, however the total has seen another slight drop, moving down to 38 ½ at some sportsbooks. For the final time this season, let’s dive into the NFL Odds for Sunday.
49ers vs. Seahawks
Currently, according to the SBR Forum consensus data, three of every four dollars wagered on this game have gone on the Niners taking points. Over $1 million has been wagered on the 49ers so far compared to under $400 K on the Hawks, however the line has yet to move despite the heavy betting on the 49ers.
However the number of wagers is close to similar. The Niners still enjoy a majority of the bets coming in on the game, however the percentage split is much less dramatic than the actual monetary amount. Nearly 43% of wagers are on the home team, but it surprises me we haven’t seen any more movement towards zero.
The Niners will probably see their line drop sometime before kick off on Sunday if the money continues to come in lopsided, and I would not be surprised one bit to see these NFL Odds come down to -3 or even -2 ½ in favor of the Hawks.
However we have seen some opposite movement in the other championship game, which could mean this spread is going nowhere. Despite the road Patriots getting two of every three dollars wagered on the game, the spread has actually moved back to +5 ½. It was at least a point less than that earlier in the week.
Thursday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
We have reached Thursday, and only 72 hours stand between us and the kick off of the NFC and AFC championships. We have already gone through these matchups once, and some of the important factors. However, practices opened yesterday, and we have already seen some more line movement within the last 48 hours because of the practice reports.
Patriots vs. Broncos
After the NFL Odds dropped down to -4 Broncos, they have shot back up again, and now have Denver as a -5 ½ favorite, with a total of 56. That’s a full point added in both the spread and total. The move could have had something to do with the fact that Tom Brady missed yesterday’s practice with flu-like symptoms. This news likely sent the entire state of Massachusetts into a panic, however reports are that Brady was back at practice today, at least to the portion that is open to the media.
I’m not sure if the flurry of betting that came in on the Broncos after this news broke is going to even up now that the news of him being back at practice has surfaced. It might drop the spread a half point or so, but it appears as if this spread is going to settle between -4 ½ and -5 ½.
The total moving up isn’t very surprising. We are starting to get into the part of the week where the public blindly bets the over seeing it’s another round of Peyton Manning versus Brady. However as I have already stated a few times in different articles so far this week, I think the under might be the play between these teams. Both will want to establish a heavy dose of running, and that may lead to the game having a running clock for most of at least the first half.
Wednesday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
We are fast approaching the championship games in both conferences in the NFL, and the NFL Odds are shaping and settling up nicely. Yesterday we took a deeper look into the odds for the AFC Championship game, and now it’s time to focus on the NFC, which should also be a pretty valuable game.
The NFL Odds for this one favor the Seahawks at -3 ½, with a low total of only 39 points. Even though the Niners have beaten the Seahawks SU in three of their last five meetings, (two of the wins were at home) the Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the 49ers.
The spread being a field goal really hurts any value that could have been had with this spread, however the total might be the way to go in this game. At 39, a speculative over bet might hold value. Both of these teams are going to try, and fail to run the football on one another, and when all of that nonsense gets sorted, I see these two quarterbacks speeding up the pace in order to score on one another, because it might be the only way. The pass has beaten both of these teams this year, and it may be the game plan of the 49ers considering their superior passing attack. Richard Sherman cannot defend Michael Crabtree along with Vernon Davis and Aquan Boldin.
Frank Gore is going to have to have a solid game for the Niners to win, but I see this one being a bit higher scoring than the total is projecting. San Francisco is going to have to throw the ball to get the upset here.
Tuesday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
After the NFL Odds for this game opened at -6 and -5 ½ in favor of the home Broncos, a flurry of betting (which began late on Sunday night) moved the spread nearly two full points down to where it sits currently at -4 and -4 ½ at some sportsbooks. This is likely because of the fact that as a five point or higher underdog in the playoffs, Brady is undefeated SU. However as I mentioned yesterday, I could see this spread coming down another half point or so to -3 ½ Broncos. There are two things that win the playoffs, defense and a running game, and the Patriots have the advantage over the Broncos in both of those areas.
The total has also seem some modest movement, and after opening at 54 ½, the total is now settling in at 55, and some sportsbooks even have the total creeping up to 55 ½. With the weather looking golden for this game, a higher scoring affair is likely. However with how well the Pats defense has been against Peyton Manning over his career against New England, 55 points is far from a lock on the over. However because the public loves to bet the over, I suspect that this total might just go even higher before probably plummeting from some sharp under action.
Make sure you’re back here tomorrow for my look into the line movement for the NFC Championship!