NFL Capper Predicts NY Jets at 9 Wins; Line Chalked at 6.5

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, July 29, 2014 8:02 AM GMT

Odds makers chalk the line for the NY Jets total wins at 6.5, with the 'over' trading at fancied -200 odds. The NFL betting public would appear to be agreeing with our NFL pick for them. Here are the details.

The New York Jets finished the season 8-8, a decent mark given the low expectations placed on them ahead of the 2013 season. Going into the upcoming season it would seem expectations remain low, with odds makers chalking the line at 6.5 for regular season wins. Is this an indication of their perceived quality or is it just that the NFL schedule dealt is simply too tough? Here’s a game-by-game analysis.

 

Jets Dealt Tough Schedule
The AFC East is one of the most lopsided divisions of the NFL, dominated by heavyweights New England Patriots with the rest of the field – Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and Buffalo Bills – striking a modest pose. Indeed, odds makers aren’t putting much stock in the Jets this season, matching them at whopping +900 odds to win the division, behind the runaway favourites Patriots at -300 and second, distant favourites Dolphins at +450. Not an inspiring outlook altogether for the Jets, is it? Yet, the Jets have a good NFL schedule (for the most part) and they’ve made some interesting acquisitions in the offseason: they’ve brought in Michael Vick, Erik Decker, Chris Johnson and Dimitri Patterson, to name a few. Are these additions enough to improve on last season’s 8-8 mark and propel them into the playoffs? Or will their season take a nosedive?  

 

Week 1 vs. Oakland
New York Jets have made some good acquisitions in the offseason. So have the Oakland Raiders. Pit those against one another and you must agree the Jets come off much better with their new signings. Overwhelmingly, one word is touted in referencing the Raiders: OLD. The Raiders has picked up just about every veteran player still floating in the league – from Texan cast off Matt Schaub to injury-prone Jones Drew and defenders on the wrong side of 30, including Justin Tuck and Antonio Smith. On balance therefore this should be a straightforward win for the Jets at home.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 2 @ Green Bay
This matchup comes down to the matchup between the explosive Packers offense and Rex Ryan-inspired defense. As well, it will come down to the quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers vs. Geno Smith (or Michael Vick). Rodgers could have a tough day against a dogged Jets defense, but in the battle between quarterbacks, he has the edge. He’s a top-notch quarterback and his quality should give the Packers the edge, over and above home ground advantage. 

Week 2 NFL Pick: Loss

 

Week 3 vs. Chicago
The Chicago Bears and Jay Cutler descend on the Jets on Monday night, primetime action. The Bears went 8-8 last season to miss the playoffs. The worst aspect was their defense that ranked 30th in the league. What they bring is an aerial assault that could be either potent or shaky, but all hinges on Jay Cutler being on or off his game. Jets win at home.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 4 vs. Detroit
The Lions went 7-9 last season with a 4-4 record at home and a 3-5 record on the road. Too many close defeats last season prompted some defensive improvements in the offseason. Have they done enough to play better on that side of the ball? It remains to be seen. This could be a close one they lose on the road.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 5 @ San Diego
The Chargers went 9-7 last season with a 5-3 record at home and a 5-5 record on the road. Phillip Rivers flourished under McCoy’s leadership, and together they fashioned a decent offense. Defensive issues however were glaring, with the Chargers ranking low in just about every relevant category. This plays into Jets offense nicely and if they exploit those defensive weaknesses it could lead to a highly entertaining road victory.

Week 5 NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 6 vs. Denver
This should be an interesting clash/study in offense. Broncos offense is in a league of its own. Jets offense will be sorely tested to keep up. The Jets now have Eric Decker but he’s unlikely to be the difference maker.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Loss

 

Week 7 @ New England
Last season, the AFC East rivals split the series with both winning at home. However, both were close affairs with the Jets losing 13-10 in New England and winning 30-27 in overtime at home. Beating the Patriots on the road is a long time coming, not since 2008 when they last beat the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. What’s more, playing the Patriots on a Thursday, immediately after taking on the Broncos on Sunday is just cruel. This doesn’t augur well at all.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Loss

 

Week 8 vs. Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills loom dangerous, boasting one of the stoutest defenses in the league statistically. That said the Bills went 6-10 last season with a 4-4 record at home and a 2-6 record on the road. Jets offense will need to be on its toes against a defense whose main players boasted 10 sacks or more, but if they can do that they should win narrowly. The Jets defense isn’t too shabby either, which suggests this matchup has the makings of a defensive slugfest.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 9 @ Kansas City
Undoubtedly, Kansas City surprised NFL bettors last season, rising from the ashes of 2012 to become a playoff contender. Question is will they repeat this year or nosedive. NFL experts are divided, particularly as free agency claimed their offensive line. That said this is a road game for the Jets. The Arrowhead is one of several hostile stadiums, a sort of a 12th man/player, if you will. Beating Alex Smith and the Chiefs on their turf is a big ask.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Loss

 

Week 10 vs. Pittsburgh
The Steelers beefed up their offense during the offseason, which should make them more potent. The Steelers, despite issues last season, still managed to take the 19-6 victory in New York. This time around with more weapons at Ben Roethlisberger their disposal they will prove even tougher for the Jets to contain.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Loss

 

Week 11 Bye: According to our far-reaching predictions (take them lightly, would you), the Jets enter the Bye week with a 5-5 record. Whether that would be considered a success depends on the remaining games down the stretch.

 

Week 12 @ Buffalo
The reverse game in Buffalo comes after the Bye week, a much-needed rest for the Jets before taking on the Bills’ formidable defense. This could go either way frankly. Last season, the Jets lost badly in Buffalo, 37-14 – one of their worst defeats on the season. With better offensive weapons this time around, the Jets could keep it closer, if not win altogether.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 13 vs. Miami
For the past couple of years, these two sides have split the series with the road team winning. Will this matchup continue the trend or will the Jets finally snap their home losing streak to the Dolphins? If they want to make a playoff run this season, they’ll have to win this one.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 14 @ Minnesota
The Vikings don’t loom dangerous in any aspect, forcing NFL expectations low across the board where they are concerned. Bookies have chalked the line as low as 5.5 regular season wins in some instances. Clearly, it’s not enough to have Adrian Peterson. But still the Vikings shouldn’t be underestimated. What’s more, it’s a short week for the Jets with the Dolphins on Monday and the Vikings on Sunday.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Loss

 

Week 15 @ Tennessee
The question marks hanging over the Titans are too many to consider individually. Suffice it to say, Jake Locker has been a disappointment to date, and it’s debatable whether he’ll ever really step up. And defense leaves much to be desired. The Jets could run riot in Tennessee.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 16 vs. New England
The Jets have a way of elevating their game against the Patriots. Last season, the Jets played Brady and Co., close in the series, only to win at home and lose on the road. Coming close doesn’t cut it however. Do they have enough weapons on both sides of the ball to steal the road win? Certainly, they have a better receiver now than they had last season. Defense gave Brady a headache as well, especially in the 30-27 overtime win by the Jets in New York. Don’t write off the Jets entirely, but it’s a big ask.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Loss

 

Week 17 @ Miami
The win could come at a premium, such as:  second place in the division and a wild card. Trends suggest the home team loses. But what if the Jets snap that trend in Week 13? In which case, they would be in prime position to sweep the series.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Win

 

Overall NFL Betting Verdict
So to sum up all our predictions, the Jets are headed for a high of 9-7 this season, one victory more than they accomplished last term. Of course, we could be wrong and they could head in the opposite direction. Odds makers however chalk the line at 6.5 and with the 'over;' trading at fancied -200 odds, the NFL betting public would appear to be agreeing with our NFL pick for the Jets.