Public favorites were bad football picks in Week 9 – except for the New England Patriots, who keep beating the NFL odds no matter how much chalk gets poured on them. Check inside for a review.
Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 8: 29-30-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 20-27 Total
At first blush, you wouldn't think the betting public got hammered too badly on Sunday. Favorites went 5-6 ATS, so how painful could things have been? Well, according to our expanded consensus reports, the two biggest favorites in terms of raw dollars were the Denver Broncos and the Atlanta Falcons, and they both came up empty in Week 9. Not that all the money placed on sportsbooks on Denver and Atlanta was square, mind you.
In terms of the spread, the biggest favorites on the Week 9 NFL odds board were the New England Patriots (–13.5 at home on the closing line), and they made the chalkeaters happy with a 27-10 win over Washington. Oh, Washington, you have failed us once more. Seven dropped passes on Sunday? A muffed onside kick recovery? Maybe you should, you know, have one of your employees take some of the air out of your footballs so you can grip them better. Don't worry, the league won't stop you.
The Patriots actually didn't bring in much volume last week – even recreational bettors may have been a little put off by those 13.5 points. For that matter, we totally whiffed on the New Orleans Saints generating public action for Sunday's 34-28 overtime loss to the Tennessee Titans. What the deuce? People were actually on Tennessee in that game, and they were right, no matter what the betting trends said.
This week, we're going out on a limb and projecting the undefeated Patriots to be a very popular NFL pick for this Sunday's game (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS) against the New York Giants. Shocking, I know. But even here, we're not so sure how “square” New England is in this situation. Our early consensus reports have 59 percent of bettors laying 70 percent of the action on the Patriots as 7-point road faves (–115).
We've also got our eye on an up-and-coming team you may have heard of. The Carolina Panthers have been slowly but steadily climbing their way up the public money charts, and last week, they presumably silenced all doubters with a 37-29 win over the Green Bay Packers (–2 away). This was another big win for the books – and for us here at the home office, thank Jeezum. What a messed-up week.
Carolina's got a date this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX) with the aforementioned Titans, and we suspect Tennessee's one-week burst of popularity will come to an end as a 4.5-point home dog against the undefeated Panthers. Speaking of which, there's one more undefeated team that should bring the public to the yard for Week 10: the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 11-point home faves versus the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Giant chalk, you taste so good.