NFL Betting - Who will the Public Blindly Back In Week 13?

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 29, 2016 2:42 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2016 2:42 PM UTC

If you're looking for a contrarian NFL pick, the Los Angeles Rams are your huckleberry. They've got a tough Sunday matchup with the popular New England Patriots.


Record: 20-15-1 ATS, 4-8 Totals

Well, we got one thing right last week: The Pittsburgh Steelers were the public choice on Thanksgiving Day. No other team came close to drawing as much action as the Steelers in Week 12, not even their popular opponents, the Indianapolis Colts. For that matter, we were right in recommending you wait until closer to kick-off for a better price on the Colts than –3. That spread turned into –9 after Andrew Luck was officially ruled out with a concussion. But Indianapolis played like hot garbage anyway and lost 28-7.

This week's “fade the public” NFL pick involves the New England Patriots (9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS), who continue to reign atop the AFC East, but have dropped the cash in two of their last three. The Pats have a very winnable game coming up this Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams (4-7 SU, 4-6-1 ATS); at press time, New England is a 13.5-point home fave on the NFL odds board, and our early consensus reports show a slight lean toward Los Angeles. Nice to see at least some of the sharps are on board.


Turn Your Head and Goff

The plan, as always with these picks, is to hold off until game time approaches (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX) and wait for the public money to wash over the marketplace, moving the spread to at least L.A. +14, and preferably +14.5 or better. Every half-point counts, especially when you're dealing with a magic number like 14.

Even a team as good as New England will find it challenging to beat any other NFL club by two touchdowns or more. The stat gurus at FiveThirtyEight have the Pats winning this matchup 86 percent of the time, for an Elo-based spread of New England –12.5. Granted, the Rams have covered just one of their last seven games, but they have a secret weapon:

No. of QBs drafted 1st overall in common draft era (1967): 22
No. of those QBs to throw 3 pass TD in 2nd career start: 1 (@JaredGoff16)

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 28, 2016

Yup, Jared Goff is finally starting, and he did a fine job in last week's 49-21 loss to the New Orleans Saints (–8 at home). The Rams are strong on defense and special teams – although they didn't show it against New Orleans – so if Goff can keep outperforming former starter Case Keenum, who was awful this year, the betting value should be with L.A. going forward.

Free NFL Pick: Rams +14 (–125)Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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