NFL Betting: Where Are the Squares? Week 6 NFL Odds Update

Jason Lake

Sunday, October 18, 2015 1:43 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 18, 2015 1:43 PM UTC

Once again, it's going to be difficult to sort the sharps from the squares when it comes to their Week 6 NFL picks – at least when it comes to the league's top teams.

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 17: 18-12 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 12-19 Total

We're only a third of the way into the 2015 regular season. A lot of things can change between now and Super Bowl 50, but for now, there are five undefeated teams in the NFL, and three more who have suffered just one loss apiece. Some of these teams are getting both sharp and square action this week, like the New England Patriots and the Cincinnati Bengals. Others, not so much. The sharps won't even touch the Carolina Panthers, for instance.

We know this because our expanded consensus reports tell us so. By looking at the betting patterns for each matchup on our Week 6 NFL odds board, we can take an educated guess at where the sharps and squares differ in their assessments. Then we can try to exploit the market by fading the public – and timing our bets in anticipation of more “square” action coming in on Sunday. Here's what the surveys say at press time.

Batty for Baltimore
Given how poorly the San Francisco 49ers (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) have played this year, you'd expect the public to bet on the Baltimore Ravens instead, even though the Ravens are also 1-4 (0-4-1 ATS). That does indeed appear to be the case. Even though there's 52-percent consensus on the visiting Ravens as a pick 'em, those bettors are only supplying 43 percent of the action. Betting is light, though: San Francisco has an average bet of $112, compared to Baltimore at $78.

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Ga-Ga for Green Bay
Here's one elite team that the sharps are avoiding this week. At press time, the Packers (5-0 SU and ATS) are 10.5-point home faves against the San Diego Chargers (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS), and while 51 percent of bettors are on Green Bay, only 43 percent of the money is coming out of their wallets and/or purses. That's not a lot of cheddar. We've already named the Chargers our Best Value for Week 6, and we suggest waiting until closer to kick-off to get them at +11 or higher, as available. There are already some +11.5 (–125) lines out there.

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Nutso for New York
Lastly, we hit the East Coast for Monday Night Football, where the Giants (3-2 SU and ATS) are getting at least some love from both sharps and squares as 5-point road dogs versus the Philadelphia Eagles (2-3 SU and ATS). The public appears to prefer the G-Men; they're getting 62-percent consensus, but only 46 percent of the monies wagered. Our surveys do show four $1000+ bets on New York and three on Philadelphia, so maybe putting the Giants in our NFL picks wasn't so square after all. May the prolate spheroid be with all of us this week.

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