NFL Betting: Where are the Sharps Looking in Week 11?

Jason Lake

Monday, November 10, 2014 1:52 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 10, 2014 1:52 PM UTC

The San Francisco 49ers just did what not many teams do: Beat the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome. Now they’re one of four teams earning unanimous support on the early Week 11 NFL odds board.

Jason’s record after Week 9: 26-36 ATS, 10-14-1 Totals

Profit: minus-34.81 units

The San Francisco 49ers are full of surprises. With their backs against the wall and their season in jeopardy, the Niners (+6) went deep into enemy territory and beat the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome, 27-24 in overtime. That breaks a 20-game home winning streak for New Orleans in games coached by Sean Payton. And the Niners won the game with a defensive play: LB Ahmad Brooks strip-sacked Drew Brees on the Saints 10-yard line to set up the winning chip shot. Grit! Determination! Fighting spirit!

The sharps are impressed. So impressed that they made San Francisco a unanimous choice at the open of the Week 11 NFL odds. The Niners hit the board as 3-point road favorites for next Sunday’s matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX) against the New York Giants, who were playing a reasonably good game against the Seattle Seahawks (–9 at home) before the wheels came off in a 38-17 final. That 100-percent approval rating for San Fran has already pushed the spread to four points as we go to press.


Don’t Be Late
The Niners are one of four teams – four very public teams – getting unanimous support on our very early consensus reports. Have the sharps gone mad? Possibly, but if you’re going to bet on a public team, you definitely want to bet early, before they get into the marketplace and make their NFL picks.

You don’t have to be a wiseguy to appreciate what the Denver Broncos are doing this year. They’re 5-1 SU and ATS in their past six games, after crushing the Oakland Raiders 41-17 as 12.5-point road faves. Another game, another five touchdown passes for Peyton Manning. Ho-hum. Easy to see why the Broncos might get 100 percent consensus for Sunday’s tilt (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) with the St. Louis Rams, who are 3-6 SU and ATS after losing 31-14 to the Arizona Cardinals (–7 at home) in Week 10.


The One
And how about the “1” in “5-1”? The New England Patriots are the only team to get the better of Denver since September; they beat the Broncos 43-21 in Week 9 as 3-point home dogs before taking the bye last week. That’s five straight wins for New England at 4-1 ATS. Hard to bet against a team like that.

Which is why everybody was on the Patriots when they opened as small road dogs against the Indianapolis Colts next Sunday night (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC). New England was +2 (–105) in a limited opening before reaching the wider marketplace at +2.5 (–105). The Colts are very popular, as well – the No. 1 team on the public money charts this year – so there’s not much point in splitting hairs over sharps and squares and public teams in this contest.


I Miss the WWF
The last of our fearsome foursome is getting 100 percent consensus despite losing in Week 10. The Pittsburgh Steelers were 3-0 SU and ATS and scoring touchdowns like it was the easiest thing in the world, until they ran into the immovable object known as… the New York Jets?! Yup, New York, armed with the No. 27-ranked pass defense in the NFL according to efficiency, held Ben Roethlisberger to a single TD pass and won 20-13 as a 4.5-point home dog in NFL odds.

So why the unanimous consent for Monday night’s matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) with the Tennessee Titans? It might have something to do with the Titans being 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS after falling 21-7 to the Baltimore Ravens (–10.5 at home). And maybe because Tennessee is starting third-string QB Zach Mettenberger. Are you ready for some football?! A Monday night party? Anyone?

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