NFL Betting - Where Are The Sharps Looking In Week 9

Jason Lake

Monday, October 31, 2016 9:58 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 31, 2016 9:58 PM UTC

The Philadelphia Eagles let one get away last week, but the wiseguys are still putting them in their Week 9 NFL picks as 3-point road dogs against the New York Giants.


Record: 16-10-1 ATS, 4-7 Totals

That's one hell of a rookie quarterback we saw in action Sunday night. Of course, we're talking about Carson Wentz. He had another quality game for the Philadelphia Eagles, connecting on 32 of his 43 passes for 202 yards and a touchdown with zero turnovers. Very nice. Oh, yeah, Dak Prescott was there, too. He saved the Dallas Cowboys (–5 at home) with a late touchdown drive and another in overtime to steal a 29-23 victory.

Despite the loss – or maybe because of it – the early birds are jumping on the Philadelphia bandwagon for this Sunday's matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX) with the New York Giants. The Eagles are 3-point road dogs on the NFL odds board as we go to press; our preliminary consensus figures show two-thirds support for Philly against the spread, and 100-percent support at +130 on the money line. Shall we join the parade?

Average Joe

All signs point to yes. The Eagles (4-3 SU and ATS) may have lost to Dallas, their third straight road loss SU, and ATS, but those were all close games that could have gone either way. And while Wentz might not be playing at Prescott's level, he was better than league average through Week 7, according to the efficiency stats at Football Outsiders. Well, all the efficiency stats except QBR, which has Wentz ranked No. 30 overall. I'll take DVOA over QBR any day.

So who's league-average in DVOA this year? Eli Manning. He was exactly 0.0% in that metric heading into the bye week, a small improvement from last year's –1.9%, and his Giants (4-3 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) have also improved as a team. But there's a considerable gap between these two teams on defense. The Eagles had the most efficient unit in the league through Week 7, while the Giants were No. 9 overall. That gap was even bigger on special teams, where Philadelphia again checked in first overall, 13 spots ahead of the G-Men.

Our friendly friends at FiveThirtyEight have crunched the numbers on this matchup, and they figure it's a pick 'em. Who are we to argue? The Eagles aren't a perfect team by any means, but they've got all the betting value, so we're definitely recommending them for your Week 9 NFL picks, especially at +3 where available. Shop smart.

Free NFL Pick: Eagles +3 (–125)Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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